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A corporate cleanup specialist who handled the Enron liquidation and is now at the helm of the bankrupt crypto trading firm, Ray said at Semafor World Economy that megabanks such as JPMorgan Chase will be fine, but cracks in private credit could cause the demise of regional banks.
He did not lay out a specific timeline for trouble or single out any vulnerable banks by name, but said lenders are holding trillions in commercial real estate loans coming due in the next few years. Other trouble spots include loans to software companies struggling with competition from AI, as well as buyout lending during a time of higher purchase price multiples prior to 2022 that will be more expensive to refinance.
“Is this going to hit the big banks? No, no, no, no, no,” he said. “Where you’re going to see it hit [is] the second tier, third tier banks…They’ve got a lot of private credit on their balance sheet, and it’s going to take some of them out.”
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