A confluence of factors — from the impact of changing weather patterns to fallout from the Iran war — risks worsening food insecurity, analysts and humanitarian groups warned. Scientists predict a particularly strong El Niño phenomenon this year that could trigger widespread droughts and floods, hammering the yields of staple crops. At the same time, the Middle East conflict has driven up fertilizer prices during the northern hemisphere’s spring planting season, threatening poorer harvests than prior years.

The combination of factors threatens to make what is a grim situation worse. Already, “we take from the hungry to give to the starving,” the World Food Programme’s acting executive director told The Guardian recently.