The Iran war has blown a hole in Gulf tourism, and the recovery is proving slow and uneven at best. Flights have returned, with Etihad and Emirates back close to their prewar capacity, but the war is hammering their business models: The International Air Transport Association expects the disruptions and a 70% jump in jet fuel prices to halve global airline profits to $23 billion, with Middle East carriers expected to book losses of $4.3 billion as transfer traffic collapses.

Hotels are even worse off. Qatar’s are 60% empty, and Dubai occupancy levels are down sharply from 80% before the city was attacked by Iranian missiles and drones. The response of hotel owners has been to slash rates and push staycations, but locals usually only book a night or two where foreigners stayed for a week, and many will soon leave for the summer. The Gulf spent billions courting tourists, and it’s unclear when they will come back.