More than 600 years ago, the Arab philosopher Ibn Khaldun observed a pattern that has repeated itself throughout history. He argued that groups rise through what he called asabiyyah — a powerful sense of social cohesion and shared purpose — but that within the success born of unity lie the seeds of their own destruction. Wealth, security, and power gradually erode solidarity, and internal rivalries begin to emerge.

At first glance, this theory may seem most applicable to tribes, kingdoms, or nations. Yet it can also be seen in business. When OpenAI was founded in 2015, its researchers, donors, and leaders were united by the belief that advanced AI should benefit humanity rather than be controlled by a handful of technology giants. As its GPT models transformed the industry, attracted billions in investment, and made OpenAI one of the world’s most influential organizations, fractures emerged, culminating in the leadership crisis surrounding Sam Altman in 2023. The organization did not fail — it had become successful enough for competing interests and visions to take shape within it.

The same pattern can increasingly be seen among the Gulf states too.

For decades, the region’s monarchies shared common challenges. They were relatively small players in a turbulent part of the world. They faced external threats, depended heavily on oil revenues, and focused on building economic stability. Cooperation was often more important than competition: examples include the Dolphin gas pipeline that continued supplying the UAE even after Abu Dhabi severed ties with Doha, the shared Gulf electricity grid, and the coordination on border controls, travel protocols, and public health measures during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Today, however, the Gulf is no longer merely a collection of wealthy energy exporters. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have become ambitious geopolitical actors with global aspirations. They compete over AI infrastructure, airlines, diplomatic influence, financial centers, logistics hubs, sports investments, and tourism.

Their rivalries have surfaced in the Horn of Africa, Libya, and Yemen, and in media networks, investment strategies, and diplomatic initiatives. They have often differed on which regional actors to support, how aggressively to confront Iran, and how closely to align with Israel, reflecting competing visions for security and influence in the Middle East.

While outright conflict between them remains unlikely, the region has shifted from an era of collective ascent to one of strategic competition.

Ibn Khaldun’s writing contains a clear warning for those involved in such rivalry. Groups that allow competition to overwhelm a shared purpose often weaken themselves. The question is how can this cycle be avoided, and the answer may lie in creating larger missions that help to preserve cooperation.

Instead of competing solely over who becomes the region’s dominant hub, the Gulf states could pursue projects that create shared value. Regional AI infrastructure, energy grids, logistics corridors, water security initiatives, and research partnerships could provide common objectives that transcend national rivalries.

In Ibn Khaldun’s terms, the solution is not to eliminate ambition, but to continually renew the sense of shared purpose that made success possible in the first place.

History suggests that cohesion creates prosperity. The challenge for every successful organization, company, and nation is ensuring that prosperity does not destroy cohesion.

Judah Taub is the founder and managing partner of Hetz Ventures, an Israeli early-stage venture capital firm specializing in cybersecurity, data, and AI infrastructure.