War in the Middle East could cost Africa as much as 1.5 percentage points of growth this year, the African Development Bank said. A scenario in which the conflict stretched for six months would hurt the continent’s already fragile prospects and expose fiscal constraints on economies struggling to fund basic services, it warned.

Now in its second month, the Israel-US war against Iran is deepening pressures on African economies, from mounting debt-service burdens to fading capital flows and rekindled energy-driven inflation.

The AfDB had projected 2026 growth of 4.3% before the strikes on Iran by the US and Israel. Chief Economist Kevin Urama now expects the war could shave 0.2 percentage points if the conflict ends within three months, and 1.5 percentage points if it lasts twice as long.

The multilateral lender joins the International Monetary Fund and several African central banks in warning that a prolonged conflict could weaken Africa’s growth outlook.