South Africa’s central bank governor broke sharply with the global “wait-and-see” mood about the impact of the Iran war, saying the bank cannot be “complacent” and will not wait for early price shocks to filter through Africa’s biggest economy.

Letsetja Kganyago’s comments at Semafor World Economy in Washington, DC, open up the possibility of interest rate hikes before fuel and fertilizer shocks bleed into wages, transport, and broader price-setting behavior.

“It is important to anticipate any evidence that will start emerging that would suggest that the second-round effects could kick in and you react to that,” Kganyago said. “You don’t wait for the second round effects to arrive; by that time it’s too late.”

His comments make South Africa stand out globally for rejecting the “wait-and-see” approach now common among major central banks following the onset of the Israel-US war against Iran.

Kganyago said the current inflation environment was more complicated than a typical one-off shock, describing it as a sequence of shocks hitting South Africa through fuel and fertilizer markets.

The first impact comes through global fuel prices, which feed directly into transport and logistics, and the second comes via fertilizer, a critical input for South Africa’s agricultural sector. “In both cases, the price effect matters, but what matters even more is whether you have access to the product in the first place,” he said.

He warned that the coming planting season — starting in October and November — will depend heavily on where fertilizer prices settle in the second half of the year. If fertilizer prices remain expensive or scarce, food prices could accelerate even if South African produces a surplus.