The EU will be hit by a “stagflationary shock” despite the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, the bloc’s economy commissioner warned.

The Middle East conflict has exposed Europe’s vulnerability: The continent imports most of its energy, while commercial shipments have also been upended by disruptions to global transit routes.

Though some countries have moved to buffer against the war’s worst impacts — several are considering restarting nuclear reactors for the first time in years — the consequences are likely to be long lasting even if the ceasefire holds, experts warned. “European economies are only at the beginning of their struggle,” an HSBC economist said in a note to clients.