Washington and Tehran announced an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a tentative breakthrough in the global energy crisis — but one that only makes the oil market more distorted.

US oil prices plunged after Iran’s foreign ministry said that the strait was “completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire” with the US, which is due to end April 22. Shortly after the statement was released, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Semafor’s editor-in-chief that the falling price was a sign President Donald Trump was succeeding in “changing the global threat level.”

Yet indicators more important than the oil price are still pointing in the wrong direction.

“It would seem the risk that was always there before this operation, would be the same risk now,” said Richard Goldberg, senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former Trump administration National Security Council official.

One of the most remarkable hallmarks of the global energy crisis so far has been the widening gap between oil futures and the actual cost of getting a barrel delivered today. On the Brent global benchmark, that gap is now nearly $40, greater than anytime during the Gulf War or the pandemic. Closing the gap — and thereby delivering meaningful relief to consumers worldwide — will require oil to actually flow through the strait. And although one cruise ship has reportedly made it through, the oil outlook remains deeply uncertain.

A key indicator of the real status of the strait is insurance rates, which soared twenty-fold during the crisis. Insurers are still deciding whether to lower rates, Glen Gilmore of Marsh Risk, an insurance broker, told me. It will take a few more bold actors successfully passing the strait before the industry will act, he added. US government-backed insurance could help. Until then, traffic will be limited.

When vessels do ultimately make the trip, the first to do so will be tankers already loaded with oil and trapped in the Persian Gulf, of which there are about 150 carrying roughly 1-2 days worth of global oil demand. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a question about whether any specific new security assurances have been made to Gulf governments, insurers, traders, or other interested parties.

Further complications abound. It will take several weeks before empty tankers from around the world can make the journey back. Washington and Tehran will need to settle on the basic terms of passage, before moving on to thornier issues like what to do with Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. The US will need to clear sea mines, and manage the risk of potshots from rogue Iranian militias. European leaders, too, are still quietly divided about the degree of coordination to have with the US Navy in their own military response, former officials told me this week.

As for the strait returning to its pre-war status quo, “I’d say best case we get to that level at some point in the mid-to-late summer,” Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group told me. Until then, expect a growing divergence between spot and future prices, and widening physical shortages around the globe.

In the meantime, Iran is essentially pressing ahead with the same strategy it has deployed effectively up to now: Using its unique ability to close the strait to extract more favorable terms in negotiations. “Iran has successfully demonstrated its power over global trade for six weeks,” Jim Krane, co-director of the Middle East Energy Roundtable at Rice University, told me. “The results are sobering.”