The Trump administration’s drive to secure access to critical minerals is hardening into a defining feature of its trade policy — and African countries are firmly in the frame.

A new paper by Columbia University’s Zainab Usman makes clear that resource-rich countries have a rare opportunity to benefit or miss out as Washington actively redesigns the rules of global mineral access through its trade pacts. This week, the US trade representative reinforced that strategy by pressing allies to shoulder more of the supply chain burden. As Usman told me, African governments “should take it quite seriously” — these initiatives represent a structural change, not a passing policy turn, and are likely to outlast any single US administration.

Recent US agreements with Ukraine and Malaysia reveal what is at stake: They combine preferential access for American firms with clauses that constrain engagement with third parties — a barely coded reference to China — while elevating US supply priorities. In DR Congo, discussions have reportedly included strategic asset reserves tied directly to American needs.

For African producers, the risk of poorly negotiated deals is real. US provisions limiting relationships with non-aligned partners could undermine the continental balancing act many governments depend on, and quietly foreclose independent mineral strategies before they have a chance to develop.

But the opportunity is equally tangible. Washington is willing to make concessions where its strategic interests are exposed. The US remains heavily dependent on imports of refined mineral products, with China dominating processing across several critical categories. African governments that arrive at the table with clear asks — investment in refining capacity, infrastructure, skills transfer — have genuine leverage.

Done well, these partnerships could help rewire global supply chains in Africa’s favor. Done badly, they risk embedding a new dependency, this time written into trade terms rather than market dynamics.