Oil prices surged on fears that the diplomatic thaw between the US and Iran may give way to renewed conflict.

Uncertainty over whether Tehran will take part in scheduled peace talks this week has intensified concern that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed; crude prices have whipsawed on news about the negotiations, and will likely remain volatile in the months ahead, the boss of a major commodities trading firm told the Financial Times.

Remarkably, prices remain below their highs since the war began and are likely lower than they should be, the International Energy Agency’s head said at Semafor World Economy. One possible reason — at least in Europe, according to JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy — is “demand destruction.”