Russia’s annual Victory Day celebrations look unlikely to be victorious or celebratory.

Tomorrow’s event marks Russia’s defeat of Nazi Germany, and usually involves months of rehearsals and a huge military parade. This year, there will be neither rehearsals nor military hardware. Security concerns mean President Vladimir Putin will spend less time in public view on Red Square.

“Putin’s magic is fading,” a Carnegie Endowment scholar wrote, while another analyst said rumors of a coup were spreading. Even official polling finds his approval rating at its lowest level since the war began, and high-profile Russians are being unusually outspoken: One former supporter called him a “war criminal” in March, yet, surprisingly, is not behind bars.