Early in 2026, it looked like Gulf businesses were in for a banner year. The region’s listed companies saw net profits rise 15.5% to a record $67.9 billion in the first quarter, according to a report by research firm KAMCO Invest. Saudi Aramco led the way by making $32 billion thanks to higher crude prices; the region’s banks added $16.9 billion on steady lending.

Most of that quarter pre-dated the Iran war, which began on Feb. 28. Even so, its impact was quickly apparent in some areas. Profits at Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC Gas fell 15% as the war cut its sales volumes, and Industries Qatar saw a drop of nearly 26% as the conflict disrupted its petrochemicals operations and shipments.

The real test will come in July, when results for the second quarter are released — a period in which the Strait of Hormuz was almost entirely closed.