The Trump administration will likely extend its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil this week, former Treasury and State Department officials said — teeing up a similar move on Iranian oil.

The Treasury Department last month greenlit the sale of previously sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil already on the water through April 11 and April 19, respectively. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained the latter move as “jiu-jitsu-ing” to minimize the economic fallout from the Iran war, predicting it would boost global supply and lower prices.

Nearly a month later, experts say there’s little proof the moves have done much to bring down costs beyond temporarily soothing investors. A wider universe of buyers for Russian and Iranian oil has allowed the countries to charge more, with Russia at times making an extra $150 million a day. Meanwhile, most of the Iranian oil was already in transit to China.

“Tinkering with Iranian oil is not a sanctions question at the end of the day; it’s about the market’s general assessment of this conflict’s direction,” said Capitol Peak Strategies’ Alex Zerden, a former Treasury official.

Half a dozen former sanctions officials told Semafor recently that they’re still anticipating a Trump administration extension of the Russian oil waiver this week, which would pave the way for an extension of the Iranian oil waiver later this month. Americans are currently paying an average of $4 a gallon for gas, the most since 2022, while talks continue on an end to the war.

Both waiver extensions would serve as the latest sign sanctions have changed shape during President Donald Trump’s second term, morphing from a first resort for economic pressure into an occasional tool for leverage in markets.

“It’s hard for me to see a world where the Trump administration cracks down on Russian oil again, at least between now and the midterm elections,” said Chokepoints author Edward Fishman, who worked on sanctions at the Obama-era State and Treasury departments.

Even if Iran keeps its promise to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, there may still be a benefit to the Trump administration in extending the waivers. The president said on Truth Social Wednesday that the US is “talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran.”

Prior to this week’s ceasefire, Ferrari and Associates’ Aydin Akgün, another former Treasury official, said: “I don’t see how they could get around” extending the Iranian oil waiver.

“The criticism [of the waivers] is very justified, but at the same time, if they’re in crisis and they need to do something to try to alleviate it, they should be able to use this tool,” said the Council on Foreign Relations’ Roxanna Vigil, another former Treasury official.

Supporters of the sanctions waivers insist they’re narrow enough to function “primarily as a market signal” without sacrificing pressure, as Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Miad Maleki described the Iranian oil waiver. Critics counter that their extension risks cementing a new norm: Sanctioned nations that hit back hard enough will find the US could back off.

“What Russia and Iran showed — really, what Iran showed — is that your options aren’t either to accede to America’s policy demands or face the pressure of sanctions,” Fishman said.

“There’s a third option, which is … impose enough economic pain on the United States that Washington sees fit to ease sanctions to alleviate that pain on itself,” he added.

It’s unclear if Treasury officials would make any additional changes to either of the waivers, which exclude reporting requirements or payment restrictions and can be revoked at any time during the 30 days. A Treasury spokesperson said the department “does not preview actions related to our sanctions.”