US President Donald Trump told aides to prepare for a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz as peace talks with Iran falter, deepening worries over the global economy’s prospects.

The World Bank estimated that an extended disruption could drive energy prices up by almost a quarter compared to 2025; the strait cannot quickly be replaced, Morningstar analysts warned in a note to clients.

Iran appears to be playing for time in talks, betting that it can withstand economic pressures for longer than the US. “We thought we were getting a TACO,” Bloomberg’s Javier Blas said, referring to the acronym Trump Always Chickens Out. “But so far we are getting a NACHO: Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.”