Oil prices inched up on Thursday as the market anxiously awaited any encouraging signals from the US-China summit in Beijing, while new data indicated an unprecedented drawdown of global oil reserves. Tehran cemented its grip on the Strait of Hormuz; a few more tankers managed to pass through in the last few days, albeit only by either negotiating in advance with Iran, or by shutting off their transponders and racing through. But some empty Iranian tankers are returning to port to act as floating storage vessels, a sign that the US oil export blockade could soon meaningfully curtail Iranian crude production.

The rest of the world, meanwhile, is using up stored oil at a “record pace,” the International Energy Agency said; the US government reported that global reserve depletions for the full year could reach up to 2.6 million barrels per day on average, up from its pre-war estimate of 300,000. Much bigger price spikes are coming for gasoline, jet fuel, and other refined products: In addition to the shortfall of crude oil, attacks on refineries in the Middle East by Iran, and in Russia by Ukraine, have knocked out about 9% of global refining capacity.