Building data centers in space could be cost-effective by the early 2030s, analysis suggested. Right now, launch costs drive up orbital compute to roughly four times the price of terrestrial, SemiAnalysis wrote. But the cost difference could fall to 30% within five years, and if demand zooms upward, chip supply increases, and public backlash against building data centers on the ground grows, space could become “the only alternative.”

Elon Musk is betting on that outcome: He argues that energy shortages, grid connections, and permitting will create construction bottlenecks, while chip production will accelerate. Space could be the cheapest option even before the end of the decade.

Another common argument is that it’s hard to switch chips and fix broken hardware up in space, but there’s a path to addressing that as well. New York startup Icarus Robotics is developing robots that can be controlled remotely to assist in space missions, and the bots are already slated to begin testing in the International Space Station next year. For that mission, they will unload bags with supplies like food and lab equipment, but the team can develop workflows for data center maintenance if the market demands it, CEO Ethan Barajas told Semafor last month.