Top Republicans have downplayed the possibility of military action in Cuba. Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters in March there wasn’t an “appetite” for ground troops and that the country was in the process of changing regimes anyway. “If it happens there is a regime change, I don’t believe we need American troops there,” he said.

And while Trump was emboldened by his success in Venezuela, where the US captured then-President Nicolás Maduro and is now working closely with the country’s interim leader, sustained military action in Cuba could prove tougher. LeoGrande suggested it would be “difficult” to achieve the administration’s goals with military force in part because — as the conflict with Iran is proving — it can be hard to “change a regime with an air war.”

Any prolonged conflict could also result in a humanitarian crisis, he suggested.

Unlike in Venezuela, it’s also unclear whether there is any successor that the US could work with if it takes out top leadership in Cuba. The Castro indictment still leaves a host of other officials who would not necessarily be amenable to a change in relations with Washington the way that Delcy Rodriguez has been in Venezuela.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel warned on Monday that a US military operation would result in a “bloodbath.”

Still, Trump is likely to get plaudits from South Florida Republicans, who represent areas with a substantial Cuban American population, for squeezing the island nation’s government. Some of those lawmakers are expected to attend the Wednesday unsealing of charges against Castro.

“It’s not coming fast enough to get rid of the Castro family in Cuba, they destroyed the island for 65 years,” said Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Fla., of the potential indictment. “Thanks to President Trump, Cubans will see freedom, liberty, democracy, and a free market economy. We could be Taiwan in 10 years.”

Although the charges haven’t yet been unveiled, reports suggest they will be connected to Castro’s alleged role in the 1996 downing of planes operated by an exile group.

“If it happens, certainly about time. [Castro] murdered three American citizens, an American resident. They were humanitarian flights,” said Rep. Carlos Giménez, R-Fla.

The issue is clearly very personal to Rubio, himself a Cuban American from South Florida.

“When you go back to even the first trip he did as secretary, it was in the Western Hemisphere,” said one Rubio ally. “If I’m him, like, this goes far beyond the current job he has. … He sees the regime there as a threat to the freedom of the people in Cuba, and also not something that helps American interests.”