Cocoa and coffee crops in Africa are likely to be hit by extreme weather caused by El Niño, further squeezing an agricultural sector that is already under pressure from the fallout of the Iran war.

Scientists have warned this year’s El Niño cycle — a naturally occurring weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures — could be particularly potent, with far-reaching impacts for farmers and soft commodities markets.

Cocoa farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which provide more than half the world’s cocoa, are likely to see drought conditions dent outputs and drive global prices. El Niño-induced droughts in 2023-24 triggered global shortages that drove cocoa prices to record highs that many Ivorian farmers did not benefit from because the government fixes prices at the beginning of the season. The IMF’s Africa chief this week said the lender would step up support for African nations hit by conflict-induced shocks, which could last for months.