Gulf sovereign wealth funds maintained their pace of investments in the first quarter, despite nearly a third of the period taking place during the war, according to data by consultancy Global SWF first seen by Semafor, but the outlines of their strategy going forward is far murkier.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala, and Qatar Investment Authority combined for almost $25 billion in new investments in the quarter, a pace that — without war — would portend a banner year for the state investors. The resilience, in part, reflects Gulf funds’ extraordinary size: currently $5 trillion across the largest ones in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, a figure that is expected to rise to almost $18 trillion by 2050.

But the pace of overseas investment will likely slow if the war drags on, Diego López, founder and managing director of Global SWF, said. For what comes next, he said strategies deployed during COVID-19 could provide the playbook.

Some funds — such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Kuwait Investment Authority — may be used to support government budgets and slow investments in private markets, López said. Others could shore up industries affected by the war, such as aviation, and provide financing for domestic military companies like EDGE in the UAE, SAMI and SAFE in Saudi, and Barzan in Qatar, he said. Both strategies would reduce the capital available for investments abroad and to drive domestic economic diversification plans.