The gaps in global oil markets are widening: Futures, driven by events and Trump tweets, are trending down, while physical barrels trade at huge premiums as refiners scramble for immediate supply.

Saudi Arabia’s Arab Light is selling to Europe at a $27.85 premium to the Brent benchmark price for May delivery, versus a 65-cent discount last month; at the extreme, “you can pick up a barrel of crude for $78 in Kansas or $286 in Sri Lanka,” according to Bloomberg’s Javier Blas. The disconnect reflects supply disruptions from the Gulf and statements and posts by US President Donald Trump that have calmed his domestic market even as they left commodity traders guessing.

When this gap narrows depends on the outcome of talks to end the war. If Hormuz remains shut, Qatar’s finance minister warned that today’s premiums are only “the tip of the iceberg,” with the biggest impact likely to be felt in another two months. While the world waits for a resolution, scammers are doing what they do. Some have tricked stranded ships — including the one Iran fired on this week — with an offer of “safe passage” in exchange for crypto.