The US and Iran remain far apart on the terms of a potential peace deal, raising doubts about finding an off-ramp to the conflict during a strained ceasefire.

US President Donald Trump delayed strikes against Iran in light of ongoing negotiations, but on Tuesday threatened “another big hit” if talks failed, leaving the Middle East on edge, with mediators seeing little progress.

The unpredictability poses a growing risk to energy markets and is muddying analysts’ crystal balls, Semafor’s Tim McDonnell wrote: One expert put the odds of renewed military escalation at 70%, while another predicted the Strait of Hormuz would reopen in June. Some NATO members have pushed for the alliance to help ships through the waterway if it hasn’t reopened by July.