The Iran war will “redraw the global energy map in real terms,” the executive director of the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, as countries more closely scrutinize their energy ties.

With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz exacerbated by a US blockade of all Iranian ports this week, Fatih Birol said at Semafor World Economy that “we are not going back to where we were” after the waterway reopens.

There will be a global “reaction,” Birol said, similar to the transformations that followed the 1970s energy shocks — which led to a surge in nuclear power and upended the auto industry — and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which led to strong growth in renewables.

“The question is, what will be the reaction,” Birol said.

He predicted more countries will prioritize energy security, adding a risk premium in trade based on the possibility for disruption, and whether countries can use their supply as leverage.

“Trustworthiness [and] predictability will be very important in the energy trade and energy security,” he said. “Which trade partners we are going to use will be a major, major chapter in the energy business.”