There’s been a trickle of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, mostly in Iranian waters but some in Oman’s. Iran provided an exemption for Iraqi tankers, adding to the vessels from Asian countries that have gained safe passage. With Bahraini-led efforts at the UN Security Council to build a global coalition to take control of the strait stalling, a coordinated military effort isn’t imminent. Instead, plans to reopen the waterway will likely come through a ceasefire and diplomacy, possibly policed by an international force.

Finding out what is happening in Hormuz has largely been a matter of relying on satellite imagery and ship-signal tracking. But the strait’s strategic importance has made some on Wall Street desperate to gain an edge. New York-based Citrini Research — which rose to prominence this year for its terrifying projection of an AI-driven economic calamity — sent an analyst to the northern UAE, according to New York magazine, and the analyst reported that there have been more attacks than publicly reported. He also sent photos of a tanker crossing the main, non-Iranian-controlled part of Hormuz — along with a shot of the beer, cigars, and Zyn he brought for a boat cruise through the waterway.