When US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announces the central bank’s decision on interest rates today — his first meeting at the helm — the impact will reverberate across African capitals already grappling with the fallout from another faraway decision.

Policymakers in Washington are expected to hold rates steady, but markets are pricing in at least one rise this year. Increased borrowing costs in the US could make local debt more expensive in many African countries, forcing officials across the continent to raise rates themselves. “If you don’t, the currency would weaken, inflation would go up, and then you’d still have to raise interest rates to stop inflation anyway,” Charlie Robertson, chief economic advisor at Equity Bank, told me.

It’s a reminder of the way decisions taken thousands of miles away — in Washington and Tehran — directly impact the way African countries are run. Even if a US-Iran truce set to be signed on Friday holds, the time needed to clear the Strait of Hormuz means disruption to fertilizer supplies are likely to be felt in some nations for months, driving food inflation. The El Niño weather phenomenon also has the potential to exacerbate the impact of food insecurity, Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa at Standard Chartered Bank, warned. Food-related consumption makes up around 40% of household spending in many African countries.

The specter of rising living costs could then play a pivotal role in major political decisions over the next year. Senegal, grappling with a balance of payments challenge after spending heavily on fuel-related subsidies, may find it has few options when discussing potential debt restructuring with IMF officials this week.

Meanwhile, the cost of living could become a key issue in Nigeria and Kenya, countries in which the incumbents are chasing a second term in elections due next year. In South Africa, which will hold local elections in November, inflation hit a two-year high of 4.5% in May. The central bank, seeking to reduce the impact of fuel price rises, raised its main interest rate by 25 basis points last month — a move policymakers elsewhere may emulate in the coming months.

As Khan pointed out, the impact of the Iran war will be felt “one way or the other” for some time.