Open-source orbital tracking data revealed that four Russian satellites have expended considerable fuel to approach an American-Finnish satellite. According to Integrity ISR (via LinkedIn), a U.S.-based defense and intelligence firm, Russian assets closed in on ICEYE-36, a radar satellite operated by ICEYE that delivers reconnaissance data to U.S. and European governments — including Ukraine, which uses the data as it defends itself against Russian aggression.
The satellites executed co-planar maneuvering, placing them in the same orbital plane as ICEYE. The biggest concern here is that this maneuver is the first step in Rendezvous Proximity Operations (RPO), an operation in which one spacecraft (or a set, in this case) changes its flight path to get close to another. More concerningly, this move consumes a lot of fuel, with ISR saying it isn’t common for earth observation, signals intelligence, or communications. A fifth satellite is also reportedly making the same fuel-intensive move to match the orbital plane of the four other satellites.
Their intentions are currently unclear, but Ars Technica reports that some U.S. officials believe that some of the Russian satellites are connected to an anti-satellite weapons program. In 2022, the Russian foreign ministry warned against using commercial satellites for military operations, with Deputy Director Konstantin Vorontsov for Nonproliferation and Arms Control saying, “Quasi-civilian infrastructure may be a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike.”
Still, the Russian military is known for “saber rattling,” i.e., displaying its capabilities and making threatening moves without engaging in direct combat. It has done this since the Cold War, with Tu-95 “Bear” strategic bombers often probing Allied airspace and getting intercepted and escorted by NATO fighters. It seems that this activity is now extending into space, with the Russians previously sending military satellites into similar co-planar orbits that several National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) Key Hole optical reconnaissance satellites use. There have also been concerns that Russian signals intelligence satellites have been intercepting European satellites and performing “risky close approaches.”
Despite this, there’s still concern about what the Russians will do, especially as they recently launched a geosynchronous satellite suspected of being part of an anti-satellite system. The U.S. Space Force has responded by inspecting the spacecraft, although that’s about the only thing that it can do without risking a confrontation. After all, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty says that outer space is free for exploration and use by all States, meaning both sides can send their satellites close to each other, as long as they do not cause “harmful interference.”
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