The madness has to end. The progressive side of politics in the UK faces two crises. The first is the possible decimation of the Labour party after the next election. The second is a prospective Reform-led government – and a Trumpian future for the country.

The best-placed figure in Britain to lead Labour away from these twin disasters is the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham. The Labour party must now do what it takes to ensure that Burnham is available to be the next leader of the party and the country. This must start with an urgent statement from its ruling national executive committee (NEC) saying that if Burnham wanted to fight any direct vacancy then he would be allowed through for local members to decide whether they wanted him as their candidate, alongside a timetable that allows him to enter the contest.

There are two reasons why Burnham is the best choice to lead Labour: his popularity and his plan. Unsurprisingly, the two are linked. It would be nice to think that Labour MPs would gravitate to Burnham because he has a considered view of how to transform the British state and its economy. We’ll come to that. But it’s his popularity that will motivate them.

Put plainly, Burnham is electoral gold dust. Because of who he is and what he’s done – locally in the north-west, but also nationally – his poll ratings are streets ahead of everyone else. He is the only major politician in the country who enjoys positive favourability ratings. All the rest, including any potential competitors for the Labour crown, poll negatively. Meanwhile, 34% of the public think Burnham would be a better prime minister than Starmer – significantly higher than any other Labour contender.

Further polling by Stack Data Strategy, reported in the Times, shows that 34% of current Green and 19% of Reform voters would be more likely to vote Labour if Burnham was prime minister. This would suggest, according to the company’s director, Aaron Iftikhar, that Burnham has the “clearest path to winning back voters from both left and right and reuniting Labour’s fractured base”. Those in Labour desperate to stop Burnham because he’s not part of their tiny and discredited rightwing faction can only cling on to the argument that Labour might lose any subsequent mayoral election in Greater Manchester.

Luke Tryl, head of the More in Common thinktank, writes in the Spectator: “Having spoken to hundreds of voters across Greater Manchester in focus groups, I can confirm the Burnham factor is real, and not just Westminster bubble hype.” He goes on to say: “So why did Labour do so badly in Greater Manchester last Thursday? Put simply, because Burnham himself wasn’t on the ballot paper.”

The craziness of keeping Burnham out and putting faction ahead of both party and – more criminally – the country was evident in the aftermath of the Gorton and Denton byelection. The Green party was able to make its Westminster breakthrough in the north after Burnham was blocked from standing. Polls suggest that if Burnham had been the candidate, Labour would have won comfortably. In blocking Burnham, Labour didn’t only lose a byelection: it lost its monopoly position to defeat the right.

So what about the plan? Burnham’s popularity isn’t just based on his style and the journey he’s taken from Westminster to Manchester – or the big interventions he’s made in British politics over Hillsborough and then how the north was treated over Covid. He’s thought deeply about how we need to transform not just our economy, but our democracy.

What stands out is is that he recognises we have to change politics by building a long-term progressive consensus for deep change in our economy. That’s what he’s done in Greater Manchester by working with progressive parties to build agreement and the political stability for businesses to invest. He calls it “business-friendly socialism”. Starting with proportional representation, Burnham recognises that nothing will change for the vast majority in our country until we change our democratic system so that we can change our economic system; until we own and control the basics in our lives such as water, energy, housing and transport.

Uniquely, Burnham is untainted by the past two years of government. He represents a fresh start. He has shown in Greater Manchester what Labour can do with a new approach to politics and a determination to reverse what Thatcherism did to our country and its people. He’s best placed to save Labour and avoid the fate of a Farage-led government. He’s enormously popular with the public and the Labour party members who will ultimately decide who leads it next.

Ten people stand in his way. They are the officers group of Labour’s NEC. They overwhelmingly blocked him last time. They must come out now and say that if he wants to run and the local Labour party in any vacancy wants him to run, then he must be allowed to, within a leadership election timeline that makes this possible. Anything else will be political calamity.

• Neal Lawson is director of the cross-party campaign organisation Compass