Andy Burnham is unlikely to be Elon Musk’s first pick to be prime minister of the UK. But an intervention by the US tech billionaire on behalf of a far-right offshoot of Reform UK is one of several signs that a divided right wing could deliver the Makerfield seat to the Manchester mayor.

On 18 June, Burnham will fight a byelection in Greater Manchester, and polls have him only slightly ahead of Reform’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, a plumber. But a far-right party set up by the former Reform MP Rupert Lowe looks as if it is taking some support from Reform.

Lowe, who represents Great Yarmouth, had a spectacular falling-out with Nigel Farage, and had the whip suspended after being accused of bullying and verbal abuse by the party. He denies all these claims. Lowe then set up his rival party, Restore Britain, and is appearing to delight in taking votes off Reform.

Restore is fielding Rebecca Shepherd, a 53-year-old local businesswoman, as its candidate. According to a recent poll, she is picking up support, which has spooked Reform figures. The Survation poll of 369 respondents in the Greater Manchester constituency, with undecided voters stripped out, put Restore Britain in third on 7%, Reform second on 40% and Labour on 43%.

Labour canvassers had noticed growing support for Restore on the doorstep, party sources said.

Farage said Burnham would be “delighted” after Musk shared a tweet from Lowe about the byelection saying “Restore Britain”. He told the Telegraph: “Elon Musk has decided he will try to split the right of British politics as best he can. This is supporting a party that’s one man with a social media account. Quite what he’s trying to achieve, I have no idea.”

Restore has also gained support from the former Dragons’ Den star and gym mogul Duncan Bannatyne, who said last week Shepherd was “very passionate” about “rejuvenating our high streets”.

To run the campaign in Makerfield, Lowe has recruited the disgraced former Conservative MP Scott Benton, who lost the whip in 2023 after suggesting to undercover reporters at the Times that he would be willing to break lobbying rules for money. A Reform source said: “Lowe is constantly attacking us for accepting former Tories, now he is working with a Tory who resigned his seat in disgrace.”

Restore calls for “remigration”, which it describes as “the most ambitious programme of mass deportations ever seen in Britain”. The party’s manifesto pledges to deport foreign-born legal residents if they, for example, live in social housing or take benefits.

Lowe has used offensive language about immigrants, recently saying at the campaign launch in Makerfield: “They should be deported to a midge-infested island offshore either England or Scotland and let the midges do the rest.” Reform figures have noted that Shepherd appeared uncomfortable standing next to Lowe as he made those remarks, and appeared to grimace. “I wonder if she knew what she let herself in for,” one said.

Reform is trying to combat this growing support for Lowe’s party. Its official X account posted: “Vote Restore, get Burnham” and its MP for Runcorn, Sarah Pochin, said: “If you go Lowe, you get Labour.”

A Reform source said: “I think people are quite worried, because as Makerfield shows it only takes a few per cent.”

The surge of support for Restore seems to be borne out in voter sentiment. The pollster Luke Tryl of More in Common said: “In general we are noticing them being raised more in focus groups, and Lowe in particular among more right-leaning participants. It tends to be people who are more engaged so the test I think is are they just an online phenomenon or something deeper and Makerfield might show that.”

He added: “Even if they get 2-3% in a general election in an era of fragmented politics that could well be enough to make a huge difference in terms of seats and so Farage ends up in this dilemma of chase those voters but risk alienating the broader mainstream he needs to get to No 10.”

Raheem Kassam, a former chief adviser to Nigel Farage, remains close to the Reform UK leader and spent the local election campaign on the road with him.

Kassam, who is now based in Washington DC, described Restore as a “spite party from all angles” and rubbished Musk’s endorsement of it.

He told the Guardian: “After Elon failed with Doge and then his aborted ‘America party’ idea, he has pivoted to the UK because Nigel refused to cave to his demands after they met. It’s a spite party from all angles. Rupert because he got caught planning a coup against Nigel. And Elon because Farage told him to bugger off.”

Kassam added: “You’d think the British right would see through it, and recognise that Lowe – who I compare to Rodney Trotter in real life – is just [Musk’s] little pawn piece.”

Lowe does not seem bothered by the prospect of helping Andy Burnham to win. He referred to the polling as “establishment polls” and claimed “it doesn’t chime with our polling which shows us having the most incredible support”.

He added: “The establishment meltdown over Restore Britain has been astonishing these last two days – trust me when I say this, they are going to keep coming for us. They want us gone. My advice? Ignore the noise, keep calm, Restore Britain.”