Looking at the group’s permutations, both Turkey and Paraguay will now have Australia squarely in their sights after the Socceroos lost 2-0 to hosts USA earlier today.

A win for either team today will bring them level on points with Australia (3), though exactly where they’ll end up – second or third – will be decided by goal difference.

The USA are all but through to the round of 32 after their comprehensive win, sailing into their third and final group game on six comfy points. Here’s Alexander Abnos on the match:

As John Denver’s Country Roads blared over the Seattle Stadium PA, they celebrated history: a spot in the knockout round secured with a game to spare, two wins to start a World Cup for the first time since 1930, a big moment for a breakout star in goalscorer Alex Freeman, and the continuation of a journey that US Soccer hope will be transformative for the sport in their country.

“We built the victory in our attitude,” Mauricio Pochettino said. “Today, even if I am not American, after the game I was emotional … To connect with the people is what we wanted.”

Hello friends and welcome to live coverage of Group D’s second match between Turkey and Paraguay. Kick-off at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium is scheduled for 8:00pm local time (11pm EDT/4am BST/1pm AEST).

Both sides come into this crucial clash having lost their opening matches in rather startling fashion. Turkey, favoured by many to top the group, unexpectedly lost 2-0 to Australia, while Paraguay were picked apart by hosts USA 4-1 a week ago.

Neither team was especially convincing in those losses. Turkey’s dominant possession did not translate into convincing chances, creating an average xG of just 0.04 despite having two of the tournament’s most exciting young attackers in Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz.

Paraguay, meanwhile, were defensively shambolic, allowing the USA to have 53 touches in their own penalty area: the second-most behind Curaçao’s destruction at the hands of Germany. They did pull a goal back from their only shot on target, but that glimmer of hope papered over some much deeper cracks.

As a result, each side will be looking to restore a bit of dignity and repair their negative goal difference as the door to the round of 32 slowly closes in front of them. The loser of this match will almost certainly be sent home.

This is the first high-stakes match between Turkey and Paraguay in their history, with their only other meeting coming in a friendly over a decade ago, so it’ll be a match of discovery for both sides as they try to save a bit of face.

I’ll be back with the line-ups shortly, but in the meantime, what did you think of the opening performances of these two sides? Which result shocked you more? And how do you reckon this one will play out? Send me an email at samantha.lewis.freelance@guardian.co.uk