Two million airline seats have been cut from this month’s schedules as airlines redraw their operations because of soaring jet fuel prices amid the Middle East conflict.
About 13,000 fewer flights will operate in May around the world after recent cancellations, according to data from the aviation analytics company Cirium.
Although the figure represents less than 2% of global aviation capacity, and only a net 111 flights have disappeared from London Heathrow schedules it comes amid fears that the long-term supply of jet fuel could cause further summer cancellations, with UK airlines told at the weekend they could have more flexibility to consolidate flights on popular routes if needed.
Some of the 2m seats have been cut by using smaller planes, as well as outright cancellations.
Istanbul and Munich have recorded the biggest drop in flights, with Turkish Airlines and the German flag carrier Lufthansa making swingeing cuts. Lufthansa has cut 20,000 short-haul flights, operated by its CityLine subsidiary.
The price of jet fuel has more than doubled since the US-Israel attack on Iran and the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
Most big short-haul airlines operating from the UK are well hedged on jet fuel, meaning they do not expect to face immediate cost increases. EasyJet and Wizz Air have pledged to operate their summer schedules in full, despite pressure on the unhedged portion of their fuel bill.
The industry says it is not experiencing any current shortages, given the usual six weeks’ visibility of supply. However, international agencies have predicted that Europe faces shortages of jet fuel if the war in the Middle East continues to disrupt supplies.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research note on Monday that the UK was the most exposed as the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, with a low inventory, high import reliance, and reduced domestic refining capacity for jet fuel.
It said stocks in the UK could fall to “critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures”.
The UK government said at the weekend that unusual measures could be taken in advance to avoid late disruption for holidaymakers over the summer, including consolidating schedules on routes where there were multiple flights to the same place on the same day.
It will relax the “use-it-or-lose-it” slot rules, with airlines able to cancel some flights with fewer seats sold without losing valuable rights to operate them the following season. If carriers have not sold a significant proportion of tickets, flights may also be cancelled to prevent wasting fuel from running near-empty planes, ministers said.
The transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, who agreed the measures with the aviation industry, said there were no “immediate supply issues”, but the government was “preparing now to give families long-term certainty and avoid unnecessary disruption at the departure gate this summer”.
UK refineries have been asked to maximise jet fuel production under contingency planning, although ministers have resisted requests from the industry to cut taxes and reduce environmental and noise rules.