Polls predict a gravity-defying fifth term at Holyrood for the Scottish National party – albeit on a much reduced vote share – but the advent of Reform UK has radically altered the dynamics of the election campaign. The manifesto pledges set out below reveal how established parties are responding, however, a lack of engagement with an estimated £5bn hole in Scottish government finances by the end of the decade has prompted economists at the independent Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) to accuse all parties of “a collective bout of fiscal denial”.
1. SNP
The SNP’s most eye-catching pledge – to cap supermarket prices for essential goods such as bread and milk – was instantly dismissed as a “potty gimmick” by retailers, and many constitutional academics doubt whether the Scottish parliament has the powers to implement it.
The manifesto also included a £100m first-homes fund to give up to £10,000 towards a deposit for first-time buyers, plans to cap all bus fares at £2, and the expansion of subsidised childcare based on family income.
Economists at the FAI were quick to highlight “several billion pounds’ worth of unfunded pledges”, even as the SNP leader, John Swinney, pledged not to increase the number of income tax bands or rates during the next parliament.
Unsurprisingly, the manifesto foregrounds the benefits of independence, but does not offer any mechanism for achieving this given Westminster’s consistent opposition.
2. Reform UK
The party’s Scotland leader, the millionaire financier Malcolm Offord, promised the party would “make Scotland the most successful part of the UK” but its tax and spending plans were panned by the Institute for Fiscal Studies as “not fiscally credible”.
The manifesto included plans to scrap Scotland’s six-band income tax system – under which higher earners pay significantly more – and realign it with the UK’s three bands, cutting 1p below each. This immediate £2bn cut would be funded by £1bn currently spent on “ideological net zero projects” and the “bloated £6.5bn spent on 132 unaccountable quangos”.
The party, which has benefited from a slew of Tory councillor defections around the north-east and Aberdeen where transition from oil and gas is a critical voter priority, says it will scrap all SNP net zero-related targets, subsidies and quangos.
3. Scottish Labour
The party pledged more homes, tax cuts and a smaller public sector, as the embattled leader, Anas Sarwar, asked voters to give his party five years “to fix the Scottish National party’s mess”.
Facing heavy competition for votes on the centre left in Scotland, and seeing the Conservatives tacking to the right as they struggle to compete with Reform UK, Scottish Labour has shifted its economic policies firmly into the centre. Sarwar offered a reduction in income tax for middle earners, who pay significantly higher marginal rates in Scotland, when the country’s finances allow, as well as cutting business rates.
It was telling that Sarwar made no reference to Keir Starmer or UK policies at the manifesto launch. Scottish Labour insiders say flagging support for the party – recent polls put it behind the SNP and Reform – is in large part because of repeated Westminster failures. Sarwar himself called for Starmer to step down in February, when the UK government became further embroiled in the scandal over Peter Mandelson’s links to Jeffrey Epstein.
4. Scottish Greens
The Scottish Greens have called for free bus travel, thousands of extra teachers and doctors, and a universal basic income, among hundreds of uncosted manifesto pledges.
The party is enjoying a bounce in Scottish opinion polls, with some putting it ahead of Labour, driven partly by the surging support for the Green party of England and Wales under the leadership of Zack Polanski. Some pundits believe the Scottish Greens are on the brink of winning their first constituency seats at Holyrood.
The manifesto has been criticised for its complete lack of costings, but the party says it would be funded by new taxes targeting the wealthy and large companies.
5. Scottish Liberal Democrats
The Lib Dems are in a buoyant mood, with polls predicting their best Holyrood results for years, targeting 10 constituencies across the country as well as hoping to win big on the regional ballot. With this election more unpredictable than most, it is feasible that the party could play a role in keeping the SNP out of power if it does a deal with Labour.
The leader, Alex Cole-Hamilton, described their manifesto as “serious, deliverable, and we know how to pay for it”. It avoids promises of big tax cuts, focusing instead on improving existing provision, no doubt with an eye to potential agreements with bigger parties after 7 May.
The document includes commitments on improving NHS access, especially for mental ill health, changes to primary education to introduce play-based learning until the age of seven, and investing £400m in social care.
6. Scottish Conservatives
Facing an existential threat from Reform UK, the Scottish Conservative manifesto offered the party a moment of definition as the only one voters can trust to oppose independence. It has pointed out that Reform UK takes a more conditional approach to the matter, with Nigel Farage suggesting a second referendum would be “quite reasonable”.
It is a strategy that has been highly successful in previous elections, but with most voters more focused on the cost of living, it is unclear how salient the constitution will be in their ballot box choices this time around.
The manifesto also focuses on tough measures on crime and benefits fraud, as well as offering tax cuts across the board. The leader, Russell Findlay, promised to tackle the country’s “bloated benefits bill” and proposed sending Scottish prisoners to foreign jails to alleviate prison overcrowding. The party said it would redouble North Sea oil and gas drilling, and offer all pensioners a £500 tax rebate to cope with the cost of living.