When Fifa expanded the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams, it was in the hope that countries such as India and China, with their 2.7 billion residents, would qualify rather than countries such as Cape Verde and Curaçao, whose combined population of about 700,000 barely equals a district of a megacity such as Mumbai or Shanghai. What the governing body did not account for was that, with the 2026 tournament a month away, there would be no broadcasting deals done with the two Asian giants to ensure fans there can watch the 104 games.

A few months ago, Fifa was said to be offering this World Cup, and the next, to New Delhi and Beijing for respective sums of $100m (£73m) and between $250m and $300m. There have been no deals struck despite the asking price falling steadily.

In India, it has reportedly dropped to $35m. The closest bid is the $20m put forward by JioStar. On the face of it, it is a surprise. For the 2014 and 2018 competitions, Sony shelled out $90m, then Viacom18 paid $62m to show the action from Qatar.

Compared with 2022, timings for India are not as kind. Only 14 games will kick off before midnight on the subcontinent. In 2018, all but one did; in 2022, all but 20. Yet this is not the main reason for the standoff, according to Shaji Prabhakaran, a member of the Asian Football Confederation’s executive committee and former general secretary of the All India Football Federation.

“The timing can be used as an excuse,” he told the Guardian. “The World Cup games are on similar times to Uefa Champions League games and Indians watch those and this is not the first World Cup to be on at this time and India has watched those too.”

He puts the impasse down more to a lack of options, money and confidence in the broadcasting sector. In 2022, Viacom, owned by Reliance, was a new player in search of quality content to attract customers and was prepared to lose money on the World Cup. Now there is only JioStar, a result of a Reliance and Disney merger, and Sony. “There is no real competition in the Indian sports broadcasting market, which makes it more difficult for Fifa, and in what market there is, cricket is the primary sport and the main focus,” said Prabhakaran.

Yet even while cricket dominates the market in India, there are domestic reports that average viewership of the Indian Premier League, cricket’s most popular and lucrative competition, which is being shown on JioStar, is down 26% this season. Broadcasters are nervous then about spending big on a football tournament in which India do not feature and games are late at night or early in the morning. The big teams such as Brazil, Argentina, Portugal, Germany and England will be watched but a large number of the group games are not that attractive and the Messi-Ronaldo story, huge in India, is fading.

There is also the fact that the Indian rupee has been on a steady downward spiral against the dollar. When Sony shelled out in 2013, the rate was 54 rupees to the USD. By 2022, it was 78 and now it is 95.

China is a bigger deal for Fifa given that Reuters reported the country accounted for 17.7% of the global linear TV reach in 2022, a figure that increased to 49.8% on digital and social media platforms. The Beijing Daily said Fifa wanted between $250m and $300m but that CCTV, the usual home of the World Cup in China, had a budget of about $60m-$80m for the rights. That is some way short of even the supposed reduced price of between $120m and $150m. The time difference – Beijing is 12 hours ahead of New York – is an obvious factor for advertisers and the repeated failure of the men’s team to get close to the tournament does not help generate interest.

Support for CCTV’s reluctance to up the price has been widespread on social media. Partly because Chinese sports fans, especially the younger generations, are adept at working around internet restrictions to watch what they want and partly because there is an expectation that a deal will be done, probably within this week because Fifa has sent a high-ranking delegation to Beijing. Prabhakaran predicts it may take two weeks in India.

Whatever happens, it is a headache for Gianni Infantino. If India and China can leave it so late and receive such significant discounts, it will not go unnoticed elsewhere. “There always has to be a balance,” said Prabhakaran. “The value of the product has to be protected or there can be consequences.” But in the short term, not doing deals with two countries that make up more than a third of the world’s population does not sound like much of an option either.