An embattled leader forced to call a referendum on separation to ward off mutiny – and then pledging to campaign against it. Allegations that prosperity had been stolen by distant elites and could be remedied with a vote to leave. Mutterings of foreign interference.

The shadow of Brexit has loomed over the prairie province of Alberta as a minority push for a vote on secedeing from Canada. And it was there again on Thursday evening when Alberta’s premier, Danielle Smith, unveiled her government’s tangled referendum question on the western province’s future – both in the gravity of the potential outcome, and in the chaotic nature of its expression:

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

The question’s confusing syntax reflects its tortured genesis: grievance politics in the prairies, improvised constitutional theory, personal ambition, infighting, backstabbing, bitter litigation – and an unprecedented data breach.

But the secessionist effort has prompting warnings of potentially catastrophic damage at a time when the United States has openly mused about undermining or even annexing Canada.

“The Brexit analogy comes up over and over again – and for good reason. Not only was it poorly thought out, but David Cameron put it to a ballot and then campaigned against it – which is exactly what Danielle Smith said she would do,” said Duane Bratt, a professor of political science at Mount Royal University in Calgary.

In recent months, Smith has tried to placate separatists and federalists within her United Conservative party – all in a province where polls show a majority is not interested in secession.

“Like Cameron, this is about a division within Smith’s party. But as hard and as complicated as the Brexit vote was, this is breaking up a country,” said Bratt. “And the ‘franken-question’ her government is asking means that no one is happy.”

Bratt called Smith’s address “the most pro-Canada speech I’ve heard her give” but noted that her decision to needlessly bring the vote in the first place has prompted swift derision.

Edmonton’s mayor, Andrew Knack, has called Smith’s secession gamble “catastrophic”. Corey Hogan, a federal MP with the ruling Liberals, said Smith’s “internal political problems” had become a “national crisis” and warned the “baffling, referendum-on-a-referendum question will do nothing to settle anything”.

Even the separatists, the people Smith meant to appease, hated it. Because the vote is both vague and not binding, many saw it as a betrayal of their efforts. One prominent separatist leader said Smith “looked every Albertan in the eye and lied to their faces”, calling her “the most dishonest and corrupt leader in my lifetime.” Another wrote that Smith had “betrayed” her base.

The move capped months of speculation about how Smith, facing the prospect of internal revolt, would deliver on a promise to be “more democratic” to voters.

Jen Gerson, a political columnist based in Calgary, said “this all feels like an episode of Veep: that sense of surreality and disconnection from reality. The problem is, you’ve got a political class here in Alberta that’s tactically really smart, but strategically idiotic.”

A government committee controlled by the UCP this week tried to bring forward a decision on a referendum question – but were foiled after a party staffer accidentally issued a press release before the meeting had ended.

The secessionists’ own efforts have done little to deflect comparisons to the American TV sitcom that highlights the bumbling nature of political insiders clamouring for power and influence. One separatist leader has publicly suggested that he has been the target of an assassination effort by King Charles.

Last month, separatists triumphantly delivered boxes with more than 300,000 signatures in favour of a referendum asking if Albertans wanted to secede. But days later, the effort was rocked by revelations that an allied group had illegally gained access to valuable and “incredibly confidential” private elections data, prompting investigations from both elections officials and the police. The data breach, one of the worst in Canadian history, prompted finger-pointing between the provincial government and the elections agency.

Questions over the integrity of the 300,000 names on the petitions were rendered seemingly moot days later, when a court quashed the whole effort. A judge ruled the provincial government had not taken steps to consult with First Nations, whose treaties with the Crown predate the creation of Alberta. On Thursday, Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation called the UCP “undemocratic, authoritarian, and willing to bend to the whims of a loud, angry minority”.

Gerson said the UCP’s efforts to appease secessionists in the province were absurd, comical – and troubling.

“There’s no middle ground here. This is a yes or no question. You can’t have a nuanced conversation about the things we disagree on. It’s been reduced to something much more primal and tribal,” she said about the erosion of public debate. “And that can open up in a population very dark things.”

Separatists have promised voters autonomy from the federal government and immense wealth from the province’s resources. But others are skeptical, especially amid fears that the United States, which has previously suggested it might try to influence separatist efforts, could use the uncertainty to further inflame tensions in the region.

“How much trust do people have in our current separatist class to be able to negotiate a really good deal for people in Alberta?” Gerson said. “They seem to be driven by a fantasy conservative monoculture republic at the end of this. They don’t seem to be considering the possibility that they’re not going to be gaining anything by this – that they’re going to be giving everything away.”

Canada’s federal conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, says he will actively campaign for the province to remain in Canada and a group of likeminded Tories and business leaders will also join in the effort.

“The separatist people have no genuine plan for what happens on day two. They have no plan for what happens if they get a 50/50 vote. It’s that dog that chases the car – and what happens when it finally catches it?” said Gerson. “We’ll get yet another tactically brilliant, strategically idiotic move to further this crisis even more.”