“Country first, party second” is a mantra Keir Starmer and his cabinet have repeated since being in opposition, seeking to draw a dividing line between Labour and their Conservative predecessors’ inclination for self-destruction.

But party members do matter in politics – and a key problem for Wes Streeting, one of those with ambitions to succeed Keir Starmer, is that many of Labour’s do not like him.

Just before Labour’s heavy local election losses, a Compass survey of more than 1,000 members found that if they were given a free choice, 42% would pick Andy Burnham to succeed Starmer – against just 11% for Streeting. And whereas Burnham had a 44% favourability rating, only 18% felt the same towards the health secretary.

That result put Streeting roughly on a par with Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband – but given those potential candidates and Burnham are firmly to his left, it would appear to suggest that the majority of the party would prefer not to have a candidate in Streeting’s place on the ideological spectrum. Both Miliband and Rayner were viewed favourably by comfortably more members than Streeting was.

Among all the plotting and jostling for position in the leadership contest, that presents a serious challenge for Streeting. While he is thought to be the candidate most ready for a leadership contest, he is on the right of the party, formerly close to Peter Mandelson and of the Blairite Progress wing.

In recent months he has been seen as seeking to position himself further to the left, perhaps in an effort to secure more support from the members who will ultimately choose the victor from a list nominated by MPs.

Recent research by Queen Mary University of London found that about 48% of Labour member describe themselves as “fairly leftwing”. The close result of Labour’s deputy leadership election and a low turnout suggested that members are still largely on the so-called soft left.

And they may remain cautious of any successor trying to appear more leftwing than their record states, given Keir Starmer’s 2020 leadership pledges, which many viewed as having ultimately been betrayed after he won the job.

Since Starmer succeeded Jeremy Corbyn in April 2020, many members have quit: from a peak of 532,046 members at the end of 2019, Labour lost more than 200,000 members, ending 2024 with 333,235 onside.

“Lots of grassroots members have left the Labour since the general election, either to join the Greens (and to a lesser extent Your Party), or just to give up belonging to any party,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.

“Starmer, inasmuch as he has any strong values, is pretty much like your [current] average Labour member, and the fact that in some ways he seems to have betrayed them is partly responsible for their disillusionment with him,” Bale said.

“But anyone on the right of the Labour party hoping that this means those remaining are on their side is probably fooling themselves.”

Still, Bale said, there may be hope for Streeting yet. “Even those who’ve stuck around are highly likely to be leftwing and very socially liberal. But one thing we know about members – and Starmer getting himself elected in 2020 rather than Corbyn’s anointed successor, Rebecca Long-Bailey, is proof of this – is that party members also want to win elections,” he said.

“So if Streeting can show them he’s the guy to do that, he still has a chance, even if he’s not their ideological ideal.”