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The Guardian

Rory McIlroy surges into six-shot Masters lead with stunning second-round flourish ‘That’ll be the end’: actor Sam Neill joins fight to stop controversial goldmine near his New Zealand vineyard Roberto De Zerbi targets ‘Ange-ball’ revival to save Spurs from relegation Bath hit back to reach semi-final after stunning Northampton in 11-try epic Secret Garden to Outcome: the week in rave reviews Zebras, wealth and power: Hungary’s election tests Orbán’s grip on power ‘TikTok effect’ brings sellout crowds and younger fans to Grand National meeting The war over Omagh’s gold: the £21bn mine plan tearing a community apart Britain’s shadow workforce is paid as little as 65p an hour. Who cares for the carers? From You, Me & Tuscany to Euphoria: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead Six great reads: the man who let snakes bite him, masked heavy metal and the brutal reality for foreign students in the UK American Classic review – I defy you not to fall in love with Kevin Kline and Laura Linney’s tender comedy Cuba’s doctors were a lifeline for the world. Now the Caribbean is shamefully complicit in the US drive to expel them An environmental disaster in Moldova has Russia’s fingerprints all over it RMIT drops misconduct case against student who accused university of being ‘complicit in Gaza genocide’ Ichiro Suzuki statue unveiling goes awry as bronze bat snaps during ceremony Survivors of Epstein’s abuse accuse Melania Trump of ‘shifting burden’ on to victims European football: Real Madrid held at home by Girona to extend winless run Arne Slot insists he is ‘aligned’ with Liverpool board and fans as squad is rebuilt Kamala Harris ‘thinking about’ running for president again in 2028 JD Vance warns Iran against trying to ‘play’ the US in peace talks West Ham double up twice to thrash Wolves and put Spurs in relegation zone Trump administration releases new renderings of so-called ‘Arc de Trump’ Crispin Odey drops £79m libel claim against FT over sexual misconduct allegations Bafta apologises for events surrounding John Davidson’s Tourette’s outburst Cocktail of the week: Bar Shrimp’s la rosita – recipe New drug may extend survival in aggressive ovarian cancer, trial shows One dead and 27 injured after bus with British passengers crashes in Canary Islands Pope adds to Smith’s mass of Surrey runs with England woes a world away OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s home targeted with molotov cocktail Reform UK local election candidate was twice disciplined by Tories over ‘racist comments’ Remaining in Nato is in best interests of US, says Keir Starmer Prince Harry sued for defamation by charity he co-founded Anthropic’s new AI tool has implications for us all – whether we can use it or not Concerns raised about motorbike tourist trail after death of British teenager in Vietnam The Guardian view on Trump’s civilisational threats: the words that fuel war must be condemned The Guardian view on dystopias for our times: the American nightmare Doctors’ leader claims new reduced pay offer killed chances of ending strikes in England Netanyahu-ism has achieved nothing for Israelis – and come at a monstrously high price Deborah Levy: ‘CS Lewis’s White Witch terrified me – but I wanted to meet her’ How I Shop with Michelle Ogundehin: ‘We grownups have enough stuff already’ Trump’s war and Melania’s Epstein statement, with US editor Betsy Reed – The Latest We have to stop killer motorists on Britain’s roads UK starts crackdown on EU citizens’ post-Brexit rights Londoners aren’t unfriendly – but don’t compare us to New Yorkers The religious right and the perversion of faith Artemis II images reignite moon mission memories Orbán and Magyar trade accusations in last days of Hungary election campaign Reckonwrong: How Long Has It Been? review | Safi Bugel's experimental album of the month Martin Rowson on Middle East peace talks – cartoon Masters magic, the Grand National and Premier League drama – follow with us Fears of UK and EU flight cancellations as airports warn of jet fuel shortages Reform’s petulance over slavery reparations shows it just doesn’t grasp Britain’s place in the modern world Peers vote to ban pornography depicting sex acts between stepfamily members Starbucks’s retail arm gets £13.7m tax credit even as sales increase Flyby review – interstellar musical is a voyage of epic strangeness Grand National preview: Jagwar can deny Irish cohort in Aintree classic Week in wildlife: an ostrich on the lam, a tortoise crossing a road and surfing seals Anger as swifts’ nesting holes in Derbyshire rail viaduct ‘blocked up’ Peter Mandelson faces fixed-penalty notice for urinating in public ‘There’s no shortage of terrifying technology’: how AI became TV drama’s new go-to villain ‘Fresher than anything in a shop’: the best recipe boxes and meal kits for time-poor foodies, tested Who was Hilma? 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Did you solve it? Dotty data and silly sentences
https://www.theguardian.com/profile/alexbellos · 2026-06-22 · via The Guardian

Earlier today I set these three puzzles about deception. Here they are again with solutions.

1. Super syllabus

A school cohort has two classes. At the end of the year 1, all pupils are graded. When all the pupils are listed in grade order, the median pupil is a C.

(The median is the middle value in a data set listed from smallest to largest.)

For year 2, the school introduces a new syllabus. At the end of the year, all pupils are again graded. Now when the pupils are listed in grade order, the median has dropped to a D.

Devise a scenario in which the new syllabus in fact improved every pupil’s grade.

Solution

Imagine that in the first year everyone in one class gets a C and everyone in the other gets has an E. If there is one more person in the first class, the median pupil gets a C.

Now lets say that in the second year, everyone with a C improves to a B, and everyone with an E improves to a D. All it takes is for two new pupils to join the second class and score a D or below for the median of the cohort to drop to D.

Yes, you might complain that I didn’t make clear that new pupils could join. But that’s the point! Often statistics deceive us because there are gaps in our knowledge.

2. Peculiar poll

Two market research companies, Smith Surveys and Jones Polls, each conduct a poll on support for a government policy.

Both polls of 125 people show that the policy is more popular amongst men.

READ THE DATA BELOW TO CHECK THAT THE PREVIOUS SENTENCE IS CORRECT.

Is the policy more popular amongst men or amongst women?

Data from Smith Surveys. Men who support the policy: 21/25, or 84 per cent. Women who support the policy: 80/100, or 80 per cent.

Data from Jones Polls: Men who support the policy: 22/100, or 22 per cent. Women who support the policy: 5/25, or 20 per cent.

Solution

You would expect it to be the case that if both polls show that the policy is more popular amongst men, then the policy is more popular among men.

But this is not true! Do the sums:

Men who support the policy overall: 43/125 = 34 per cent

Women who support the policy overall: 85/125 = 68 per cent

The policy is more popular among women.

This statistical curiosity is called Simpson’s Paradox, the phenomenon that trends in certain data sets can be reversed when the sets are combined.

Smith happened to survey mostly women in a place or way that produced high support overall, while Jones surveyed mostly men in a place or way that produced low support overall. When those different figures are combined the resulting figures point in the opposite direction.

3. Anguish Languish (prize draw!)

Anguish Languish is an ersatz language created by the US linguist Howard L Chase in which an English text is “translated” into a nonsense string of similar-sounding English words. (i.e English language = anguish languish.) Chase invented it to show “the marvelous versatility of a language in which almost anything can, if necessary, be made to mean something else.”

I asked readers to submit some examples to win a free copy of You Don’t Know What You’re M ss ng by Kit Yates.

The most popular subject was today’s news and we will miss a PM who if nothing else has a surprisingly homophone-friendly name.

Star myrrh scone

(Starmer’s gone.)

Good bike here, fair wheel.

(Good by Kier, farewell.)

Soak eerie mane sin faun, ow! Andes potent chili necks.

(So, Kier remains in for now. Andy’s potentially next.)

Goods peed KISSED Armour

(Godspeed Kier Starmer)

Other notable contributions were

Wench all wheat tree metre gain

(When shall we three meet again?)

Eats ahead nog knife, forest.

(It’s a hard knock life, for us.)

Lord Fig-Wit against tie-in

(Ludwig Wittgenstein)

Anna plaid hey key psst thud Octo hey whey!

(An apple a day keeps the doctor away._

But the winner is Edward Barrett for the nursery rhyme:

Myriad Al tell ’em, eats fleas worse wight ass know

(Mary had a little lamb, its fleece was white as snow.)

Thanks to everyone who submitted a line – I hope you had fun. I’ll be back in two weeks.

You Don’t Know What You’re M ss ng by Kit Yates is available to buy on the Guardian Bookshop for £22.50.

I’ve been setting a puzzle here on alternate Mondays since 2015. I’m always on the look-out for great puzzles. If you would like to suggest one, email me.