Six months ago, Italy’s far-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, stood surrounded by men on a stage in Sharm el-Sheikh, where world leaders had gathered to discuss the Gaza peace deal.

In front of her, Donald Trump showered praise and insults on the assembled leaders, before describing Meloni as a “beautiful young woman”. Turning towards her, he added: “You don’t mind being called beautiful, right? Because you are. Thank you very much for coming.”

Meloni looked uncomfortable, but accepted the compliment. She had worked hard to establish herself as a solid European ally for Trump, paying a flying visit to his Mar-a-Lago country club in Florida and being the only European leader to attend his inauguration as US president.

That relationship, rooted in shared nationalistic rhetoric, is now unravelling as quickly as it formed. In an interview this week, Trump turned on her, telling the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera on Tuesday that she “lacked courage” for failing to join the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The rebuke came after Meloni described Trump’s attack on Pope Leo – who has emerged as a vocal critic of the Iran war – as “unacceptable”.

“She is the one who is unacceptable,” Trump snapped, “because she doesn’t care if Iran has a nuclear weapon and would blow up Italy in two minutes if it had the chance.”

The remarks rounded off a challenging month for Meloni, whose government suffered a bruising setback in a referendum on a judicial overhaul in March and whose cosy relations with Trump have been an increasing political liability in a country with a deeply rooted anti-war culture.

Meloni needed a way to help restore her image and recuperate consensus – and analysts say Trump’s feud with Pope Leo provided the ideal opportunity.

“When you consider the moment in Sharm-el Sheikh, she wasn’t pleased to receive that compliment – she understood how diminishing it was – but she accepted it,” said Cecilia Sottilotta, an associate politics professor at the University for Foreigners in Perugia. “However, there comes a time when never standing up to your partner becomes a problem. So the Pope Leo row was welcome news for Meloni, because in Italy, people love their popes, and they hate wars … Meloni desperately needed an excuse to distance herself from Trump and this was a good one.”

Meloni had started to distance herself from Trump after the strikes in Iran were launched in late February, albeit cautiously. In parliament, she strongly criticised the conflict while at the same time warning that we “cannot afford a regime of ayatollahs in possession of nuclear weapons” that could threaten Italy and Europe.

After the referendum defeat, she adopted a stronger approach by denying use of an airbase in Sicily for US military planes carrying weapons for the Iran war.

Still, her delicate balancing act was visible even with her defence of Pope Leo. Meloni said Trump’s verbal attack against the pontiff – whom he described as “weak” and catering to the “radical left” – was “unacceptable”. But that was only after she came under pressure from the opposition when she omitted to address the remarks in a social media post that praised Leo for his role in “fostering the return of peace” as he departed on a trip to Africa.

“Her instinct right up until the very end was to walk the tightrope,” said Sottilotta. “But this is a big crisis and at this point, you cannot afford but to take sides.”

The ousting of her far-right ally Viktor Orbán in Hungary in elections on Sunday is also suspected to have played a role in Meloni’s reaction to Trump – especially after the US vice-president, JD Vance, travelled to Budapest in an effort to boost Orbán’s chances.

“Vance going to Orbán was like delivering the kiss of death,” said Sottilotta. “So when she saw that, she really understood.”

Now beginning to focus on general elections in 2027 – which until the referendum were expected to strongly favour her ruling coalition – Meloni has begun a tactful pivot.

In a further sign of distancing herself from the war, this week Italy suspended a defence pact with Israel, previously a staunchly supported ally. Meloni also reiterated her government’s backing of Ukraine during a meeting with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in Rome on Wednesday, pledging to help boost the country’s defences against Russian attacks. On Friday, she will join the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and British prime minister, Keir Starmer, who have also been the repeated targets of Trump’s wrath, for talks in Paris on securing the strait of Hormuz.

Although Meloni’s Brothers of Italy has lost some support in recent weeks, the party maintains a lead in polls, as does Meloni’s personal popularity rating even if her leadership has lost its shine. Unless the fragmented opposition produces a credible alternative to Meloni, the polls are likely to remain static. Her government is now expected to prioritise plans to pass an electoral law that could give it a comfortable win in the next elections.

“I believe the coalition remains favoured, in the sense that it has a clear leader,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, a co-founder of YouTrend, a political analysis firm. “The opposition still needs to define the alternative.”

Meloni’s government has enjoyed a stable ride since coming to power in October 2022 mostly due to it being compact rather than achieving anything meaningful to improve the lives of Italians.

“She’s dealt with the Trump issue, which in the short term, was a tactful move,” said Mattia Diletti, a politics professor at Sapienza University in Rome. “But unless she makes some spectacular changes [on the domestic front], she will decline. Italians don’t care too much about international politics but they do care about the war in Iran and wider Middle East, because it’s affecting their lives and the cost of living, so the sooner it stops, the better for Meloni.”