The roads that connect the collection of towns and villages that make up this constituency in England are studded with turquoise banners declaring: “Makerfield needs Reform.”

Once at the heart of Wigan’s coal-mining industry, and represented by a Labour MP continuously since the 1900s, Farage’s party has gained a foothold here, and with any other Labour candidate installed, this parliamentary seat would almost certainly fall to Reform.

The most pertinent issues here are largely environmental ones; on New Year’s Day 2025, flooding hit several areas of the constituency, with residents forced out of their homes for months.

In Bickershaw, villagers have endured a huge 25,000-tonne dump of illegal waste, and public transport is an issue – with no Metrolink tram service, it can take an hour to reach Manchester city centre on trains and buses.

Yet even in the areas most affected by flooding, Reform voters are not put off by the party’s climate policies, which include scrapping net zero and ending all renewable energy subsidies.

Stefan Bilski, a roofer, is “probably” voting Reform. His house, in the village of Abram, has seriously flooded twice – last year, and in 2015, but, he says: “I don’t think Labour have done enough [about flooding].”

His vote has also been swayed by the fact, in his view, “Labour aren’t doing enough to stop all the illegal migrants coming in”.

“My name’s Bilski, so my grandad was a migrant, but he came over in the war and worked down Bolton colliery,” he says. “He didn’t come asking for benefits.”

A pensioner living in Bickershaw Lane says she has also been flooded twice. Asking not to be named, she says “you can’t even imagine” how difficult the experience was – she and her husband were out of their house for eight months and it has since plummeted in value.

She is leaning towards voting Reform, saying Labour has “taken it for granted” for too long. She is not put off by Reform’s climate policies, adding: “This particular thing is not climate change, this is flooding. There are so many new properties being built in this area.”

It is these two issues – immigration and disenchantment with Labour – that are driving voters to Reform more than any other.

News stories about the views of the party’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, also appear not to have discouraged voters. In past online posts, he has said “I’m sexist, sorry but I am”, suggested women had abortions so they could “shag anyone they want”, and described gay people as “poofs”.

Stephanie Doohan has a Reform flag flying from a pole outside her house. A former railway worker and trade unionist, she says she is backing the party because she wants “change” and Kenyon is “a local lad”. She dismisses criticism of his online activity, saying: “That’s his opinion, we’ve all got opinions. I can disagree with him, but it’s his policies I’m looking at.”

What matters to her, she says, is whether a candidate will deliver for the area. “Andy Burnham is not going to do anything,” she says. “He’s using it as a stepping stone to become prime minister. He doesn’t care about Makerfield.”

One of the greatest threats to Reform’s chances appears to be from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party. Polling from Survation last week put the party in third place, on 7% of the vote.

And while just three months ago, in the Gorton and Denton byelection, Restore Britain was seldom mentioned, in Makerfield, Restore Britain’s name comes up regularly, voiced by those for and against it.

In the town of Hindley, Zoe says she has lost faith not just in Labour but in Reform too, and thinks Restore Britain will “get a move on”.

“Everybody’s struggling, the prices are going up, nothing’s being done about it,” she says. And she thinks Farage’s party has become indistinguishable from the political establishment. “I don’t trust them,” she says.

The Bryn community club, which used to be the Labour club, is now the campaign headquarters of Restore Britain. On a weekday afternoon, about 24 volunteers are gathering to head out on the campaign trail.

Among them is Tracey Bailey, who says: “I’m here as a nurse and a health visitor to save our country and save our children. I’m a mother of three, and I don’t like the state of the nation.”

Outside a row of shuttered shops in Hindley, Eilieen Orrell, a former railway worker, says she is planning to vote for Restore Britain. A trade unionist who voted Labour at the last general election, she says she has spent the past three years following Rupert Lowe. “I just like the fact that he brings up other things apart from migrants,” she says.

For Orrell, the decline of the high street has become symbolic of a wider sense that the area has been neglected. “When I was growing up, there were shoe shops, a Woolworths, a hardware shop – everything you could find was on the high street,” she says. “Now, there’s nothing,” she says, gesturing towards a parade of vape shops and barbers.

But, of course, the main barrier to a Reform victory here is Labour’s choice of candidate – Andy Burnham, the Manchester mayor, and formerly the MP for neighbouring Leigh, who is managing to regain votes that Labour had lost to the left and the right. The same Survation polling shows him with a narrow lead over Kenyon.

Elizabeth Whitehurst voted Green at the recent local elections, when Labour suffered heavy losses to Reform, but on 18 June: “It will be Andy.” She said it petrified her to think Reform might win, “or Restore” as they had no interest in Green issues.

“I mean the man [Kenyon] has actually said it on X or whatever,” she says, “[that] it was a middle-class issue. It’s just bizarre.”

Whitehurst’s house in Abram was one of those affected by flooding and the family was forced to live upstairs for months. “It was extremely difficult,” she says, “there was no help, there was nothing.”

Michelle Hogan, who works as the head of a supply chain for a fruit juice manufacturer, says: “I wouldn’t [be] voting for Labour if it wasn’t for Andy Burnham.

“I think Labour have lost their way,” she adds. “I don’t think Keir Starmer represents working-class people. I’ve always liked Andy Burnham, but I think he’s got a track record now with what he’s done for Manchester, and I just think he’s a personable, down-to-earth bloke, who working-class people can relate to.

“I literally was overjoyed when I heard he was standing for Makerfield, and I do think that what [retiring MP] Josh Simons has done has been overlooked,” she says, “because I think what he’s done is really selfless, because I think a lot of people like myself think that this is the last chance.”

Hogan added: “I didn’t vote last time and it’s the first time I’ve ever not voted. I probably would have voted Green if Andy Burnham wasn’t standing. I do think Green might split the Labour vote, which worries me a little bit.”

Sarah Wakefield, the Green candidate, defends the party’s decision to field a candidate. “I’d say that the Green party did not call this byelection, Labour chose to call this byelection, Andy Burnham has chosen to stand in this byelection, and it’s his job to make the case for why he should be the representative of these people,” she says.

“That’s not my job – my job is to tell people why they should vote for Green policies.”

However, the party is not dedicating anything like the resources it put into Gorton and Denton, where it ultimately came away victorious. “It’s a different area and it’s a different campaign,” Wakefield says.

Back in Hindley, Sue Houghton is also backing Burnham, even though she says: “I’m not normally a Labour voter at all.”

She hopes Burnham will challenge Starmer to lead the government. “He is not a strong enough leader,” she says. “He’s not got the public behind him, I don’t think, normal people like us.”

Her husband, Paul Houghton, adds: “If it was a normal election, I would normally vote for Reform, but I’m going to vote for Labour this time, and I’ve not voted for Labour in years.

“I think he’s doing a good job for Manchester, he’s done a cracking job as mayor,” he says, “and I think he’ll make a good prime minister.”