A car rolls past the television cameras and reporters thronging the high street in Ashton-in-Makerfield, the window is wound down, and a voice from within shouts: “Andy Burnham!”

Such enthusiastic support for a Labour politician is perhaps unexpected here, given that Reform won 24 out of 25 seats when voters in this borough, Wigan, went to the polls last week, and Starmer’s party came away with nothing.

But Burnham is not your ordinary Labour politician.

And in what will be potentially the most consequential byelection in living memory, the Greater Manchester mayor has announced his intention to contest this seat, after the sitting MP Josh Simons agreed to step aside for him.

It is undoubtedly the biggest risk of Burnham’s political career. If Labour put up any other candidate, Reform would be odds-on to take the seat, which Simons won in 2024 with a majority of just over 5,000.

In Ashton-in-Makerfield, Pete Thompson, who runs Revolving Records, is cautiously optimistic about Burnham himself – but less so about his chances.

“Given the choice, I would say Andy Burnham is a better figurehead than our prime minister,” he said. “Let’s see where that goes, but he’s got to get in first, hasn’t he?”

“That is not going to be easy, I don’t think,” he added. “Not with what Reform have done [locally].”

Ryan Fairhurst, a hairdresser, has switched to Reform after voting Labour all his life. He likes that Farage “is a businessman” and hopes that his party would “start more investment into local businesses”.

“We’re not really seeing it, are we?” he said. “We see more local businesses closing down.”

Meanwhile, Peter Cain, a butcher, may vote for Burnham, but doesn’t know yet. He thinks Burnham’s “more in reality with what’s going on”, but will have a “tough fight on” against Reform.

But, he added: “I don’t think Reform has got any pedigree, have they? That’s your problem. You’re asking somebody who’s never run anything before.”

If Burnham did manage to pull it off, “let’s just hope he can look after his constituents”, he said, “because is it not just a stepping stone for him to become the prime minister and then he forgets about his constituency?”

Makerfield is undoubtedly a tougher challenge than some of the other Greater Manchester seats Burnham reportedly had his eye on. But he hopes that with his record as a mayor, and his “Manchesterism” brand of politics, he can succeed where others would fail.

And, living just over the border in neighbouring Leigh, he is also on home turf. There is a sense among many voters here that Burnham understands their needs in a way that most politicians do not.

“He’s just down to earth isn’t he? He’s one of us, he is a local lad,” said Colin Holmes, who owns the Coffee Shop, adding that he would “100%” vote for Burnham.

“I’ve got every faith in Andy, to be honest with you,” his wife and business partner, Donna Holmes, said, “because he understands, he’s from a working background himself, he understands what people are going through”.

“I think that’s what Andy’s about,” she added. “He listens, and he gets among people, and he understands hardship as well.”

Fran Kennedy, the co-owner of another independent business, the Cupcakery, said: “He knows what it is like to be a working-class citizen, whereas a lot of the politicians don’t.

“We need somebody in the Labour party, for the government, that actually knows what it’s like to be from a struggling town.”

As mayor, “he did really, really well for public transport”, she added. “It obviously helped a lot of people, which is something that’s obviously needed. It’s made it cheaper for a lot of people, and made it more convenient to get from A to B.”

And while some here do have concerns about Burnham using the constituency as a tool to further his own ambition, most seem to welcome the idea of a Makerfield prime minister.

“We need a bit of something to uplift us all a little bit,” Kennedy said, “because we’ve got so much potential in this little town.”

If Burnham does succeed, it will be in spite of, not because of the Labour brand, and entirely down to his personal popularity here.

Kevin Whittaker, an ex-tank commander, is not a natural Labour voter – but he does plan to back Burnham. “I think he’d do good if he got in No 10,” he said.

“I’ve been conservative most of my life, even through my army days, but no, he’s kind of won me over. I like his policies and everything, he seems more direct.

“He’s more positive, more committed to the cause, I think. I’ve never been a good supporter of Mr Starmer. He’s a bit weak, I’d think.”

Back at the Coffee Shop, Donna Holmes thinks that while he “needs to get a lot of people behind him”, Burnham will succeed here.

“The way things have been going, I don’t think [Labour] have had a lot of good publicity, with one thing or another, but I think Andy will pull it back,” she said.

She often sees him in the local Asda supermarket, and “he’ll be walking round and he’ll stop and he will chat”.

“All the old ladies, he’s chatting away to them all,” she said. “They all like him, he’s got a good reputation, especially round here.”

“I think he’ll do well,” she added. “He’s got my vote anyway.”