Slavery in the UK is at record levels and is expected to worsen over the next decade, the government’s independent anti-slavery commissioner has warned.

According to the number of referrals to the national referral mechanism, which assesses potential victims of slavery and provides support to victims, numbers have almost doubled in the last five years from 12,691 referrals in 2021 to 23,411 in 2025, the highest ever number.

In her report, published on Tuesday, Eleanor Lyons said this increase was not only due to better detection of slavery but also to worsening conditions in the UK and across the world.

“Poverty, global instability, conflict, global displacement of people and the breakdown of safe migration routes are creating a growing pipeline of vulnerability that traffickers are quick to exploit,” said the report, Anticipating Exploitation: A Futures-Based Analysis.

It pulled together research compiled by more than 50 different experts across law enforcement, government, civil society and the charity sector and is the first comprehensive forward-looking analysis of how modern slavery and human trafficking are likely to evolve in the UK over the next decade.

Lyons said that unless the UK took action, the situation could become even worse with AI being used to scale up and professionalise exploitation; the increased use of digital labour in “scam compounds” – such as entrapping people into investor and romance fraud; and the integration of cryptocurrencies into trafficking models.

The report also raised concerns about the continued growth of gig economy platforms, coercive labour in areas such as agriculture, construction and mining, and an increase in reproductive slavery such as enforced egg harvesting and surrogacy.

Lyons called on ministers to increase funding for specialist police units so they can disrupt exploitation, prosecute more businesses exploiting or enslaving workers, and to launch a national campaign to help the public recognise and report exploitation. She is also called on the government to improve victim care.

Her report warned that without urgent action criminal networks would become more cunning, less visible and harder to disrupt. “Slavery and the most harrowing forms of exploitation are becoming more widespread in this country and evolving faster than we can respond,” Lyons said.

“As exploitation becomes more complex and more hidden, driven by technology and global instability, it will spread further and become harder to stop unless we act now.”

A separate evaluation report, also published on Tuesday by the Council of Europe’s influential group of experts on trafficking in human beings, Greta, highlighted a steep rise in potential trafficking victims.

While the experts welcomed a series of steps taken by the UK authorities in recent years to tackle human trafficking, such as not holding victims responsible for criminal acts they were forced to carry out by their traffickers, they urged the UK to adopt a number of further measures to bring the country’s anti-trafficking laws, policies and practices fully into line with the convention on action against trafficking in human beings.

The report stressed the need for more resources, increased prioritisation and better coordination between law enforcement and other agencies, as well as reinforced financial investigations.

It added that further safeguards were needed to prevent trafficking for labour exploitation, as well as the trafficking of people from vulnerable groups – including children, migrants, asylum seekers and homeless people.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “Modern slavery is a global scourge that abuses and exploits people for profit. We are committed to reviewing the modern slavery system to reduce opportunities for misuse of the system, whilst also ensuring that we have the right protections for those who need it.

“We are working with brave survivors to inform policy development and improve the process of identifying victims. We have also taken immediate action to reduce the backlog of cases, ensuring victims get swift decisions and the support they need to rebuild their lives.”