Hot weather is expected across Europe this week as heatwave conditions build over large swathes of the continent.

A mass of hot air from the Sahara has settled over the Iberian peninsula and spread into southern and western France, pushing temperatures widely into the low- and mid-30s celsius.

By midweek, the hot air is expected to spread north-eastwards across Europe, and on Friday, maximum temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-30s in several countries including Germany, Italy and Czechia. Depending on the location, these readings are 9-13C above the 1991-2020 climate average.

The UK is unlikely to escape the heat entirely. Forecast models indicate that occasional plumes of warm air could move north from the continent on Thursday and Friday, nudging temperatures into the mid- to high-20s celsius across southern and eastern England.

After up to five consecutive days in the mid-30s – meeting the definition of a heatwave in some areas – the heat is expected to ease for most by early next week.

Europe is not the only region experiencing above-average temperatures – parts of Australia are likely to continue their mild start to winter. A slow-moving low-pressure system south of South Australia is expected to draw warm northerly air across the eastern half of the country while bringing gusty conditions.

Temperatures in Melbourne are forecast to reach the high-teens celsius on Tuesday and Wednesday, about 3-4C above average. Overnight temperatures are expected to show a similar departure from the norm, nearing the mid-teens – typically 5-6C above average.

While these conditions are not considered extreme, they are expected to remain a recurring feature of the Australian winter. The national Bureau of Meteorology has linked the pattern to developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically bring warmer-than-average daytime temperatures to much of the country.