It is likely to be a quiet morning on equity markets, as most of the major indices around Europe are closed – and on that note, happy May Day!

But London is still open for trading (and closed on Monday). Futures prices suggest the FTSE 100 is due to dip by 0.3%.

British homebuyers defied a bleak economic mood and the Iran war to push house prices up by 0.4% in April, surprising economists who had on average expected a decline.

Annual house price growth picked up to 3.0% in April, from 2.2% in March, according to data published on Friday by Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society. That put the average price at £278,880.

Nationwide said the increase in prices reflected resilience in the housing market, despite measures of economic sentiment declining, and the backdrop of the US-Israeli war in Iran threatening inflation because of higher oil prices.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said:

Despite the uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in energy prices, the UK housing market has continued to regain momentum following the slowdown recorded around the turn of the year.

This is somewhat surprising given that indicators of consumer confidence have weakened noticeably. GfK’s headline index has fallen to its lowest level since late‑2023, reflecting households’ more pessimistic views of the economic outlook and their own financial position over the year ahead.

Ashley Webb, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, said:

The surprisingly strong rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in April shows that house prices have continued to gain momentum despite the falls in consumer confidence and the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war. But the growing upside risks to our mortgage rate forecast from the most recent rise in oil prices suggests this strength is unlikely to last.

NatWest Group reports higher profits despite economic gloom

NatWest reported higher profits of £1.4bn in the first quarter of the year, despite the UK banking group setting aside an extra £140m in case of the economy worsening.

The bank, formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland, said that it expects income for the year to reach the top end of its expected range of between £17.2bn and £17.6bn.

Paul Thwaite, NatWest’s chief executive, said it was a “strong performance in the first quarter of 2026”.

We have started the year with positive momentum, underpinned by healthy customer activity – growing all of our three businesses, expanding our capabilities to meet more of our customers’ needs and further improving productivity as we use AI at scale across the bank.

The agenda

• 9:30am BST: Bank of England consumer credit (March; previous: £1.9bn; consensus: £1.8bn)

• 9:30am BST: Bank of England mortgage approvals (March; previous: 62,580; consensus: 60,000)

• 1:15pm BST: Bank of England – speech by Huw Pill, chief economist