1. Labour

Labour’s results are bad, but perhaps not as disastrous as might have been expected. So far, the party has lost swathes of seats across its traditional heartlands –and lost control of councils including Hartlepool, Tameside, Redditch and Tamworth – to the Reform surge.

Several big Labour beasts, including Angela Rayner in Tameside and Lisa Nandy in Wigan, will be worried by the results, which will give succour to those inside Labour who argue the real threat lies on the party’s right (even though those seats were lost because Labour voters switched to progressive parties).

But the elections experts John Curtice and Michael Thrasher have predicted that if losses continue at the same rate, Labour could lose just over 1,200 of the 2,500 seats it is defending. A serious downplaying of expectations over the past few weeks means Labour politicians will be relieved to lose anything south of 1,500.

Yet the prospect of losing control in Wales (where Labour has dominated for over a century) and coming third in Scotland (which at one point it was on course to win) will be a serious emotional blow for many in the party. Despite Keir Starmer’s attempts to shore up support on Friday morning, it could be deeply destabilising.

2. Reform UK

Reform are the big winners so far, taking seats in previous Labour heartland areas across the Midlands and the north, many of which voted for Brexit, including winning the council in Newcastle-under-Lyme. It also gained from the Conservatives.

Nigel Farage, who has already been on a victory lap after Reform took Havering council in east London, is expected to make big gains in places such as Suffolk, Norfolk and Essex – eating into the vote of senior Conservatives such as Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel and James Cleverly, who are MPs there.

But while Reform appears at first glance to have had a good set of elections, the party may have some private concerns. The elections expert Peter Kellner points out that in last year’s local elections, Reform won 41% of all seats contested across England. On the basis of overnight figures, this year’s tally is about 33%. This reflects recent polling, and suggests support may have peaked.

3. Conservatives

Kemi Badenoch’s party has not had a great set of results so far, with more losses to Reform than it had hoped for as the battle for domination of the right continues. The Tories will feel losses in Essex – slap-bang in the Badenoch’s backyard – particularly keenly.

They are also at risk from the Liberal Democrats in parts of their traditional heartlands in southern England. But there is one bright spot for the Tories so far in central London: they won Westminster and took back control of Wandsworth.

There may well be attempts to spin this as the beginning of a great fightback, just as Margaret Thatcher’s party chair, Kenneth Baker, did after a Tory routing over the poll tax in the 1990 local elections. The party also saw off the Reform threat in Bexley, south-east London.

4. Greens

Many of the Greens’ biggest targets are still to come – including in Greater Manchester and the Hackney mayoralty – and they have already seen an increase in vote share since 2022. Yet the party has struggled to translate that into significant seat gains, not least because of the first-past-the-post electoral system.

They may also have been a victim of poor expectation management – with prospects having been talked up, particularly in London – as well as a dip in support for the party’s leader, Zack Polanski, in recent days, with insiders admitting that accusations of antisemitism in the party had come up on the doorsteps.

5. Liberal Democrats

It has been a mixed bag of results for the Lib Dems so far. Losing control of a flagship council in Hull will be painful for many in the party, although taking Stockport and Portsmouth may offer some consolation.

The party believes its best results are still to come, and its hoping to win control of Hampshire and Surrey from the Tories as it continues breaking down the “blue wall” across the south of England. Results in their south-west London stronghold were also mixed: while they failed to take Merton from Labour, Richmond has ended up a one-party state.