Energy has not been a prominent subject for discussion in the run-up to Thursday’s UK elections. In England this is logical enough, since the big policy decisions are taken by ministers in Westminster, not at council meetings. But the stances adopted by the new governments in Scotland and Wales matter a great deal. They will have an influence beyond their borders, helping to shape the national climate debate in the coming years.

In both nations, as in England, divisions have deepened as Conservatives have moved away from support for net zero and Reform UK has ramped up its opposition to renewables. Among Scottish parties, only the Greens are categorically against new fossil‑fuel developments in the North Sea. Under John Swinney, the Scottish National party’s earlier opposition to the Rosebank oilfield has softened in advance of the upcoming decision over whether it should go ahead. Scottish Labour, by contrast, has thrown its weight behind new nuclear power.

Across the UK, as in other countries, views about how best to respond to the latest spike in energy prices are split. Recent analysis by Carbon Brief found that fuel tax cuts were the most popular measures by governments around the world. Energy conservation policies such as fuel rationing have also been adopted in Asia, while Japan and Italy have increased their reliance on coal – at least temporarily. But European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer, and India’s Narendra Modi, have taken a different tack by stressing the need to hasten the transition towards renewables.

India was not invited to last week’s climate conference in Colombia, due to its refusal to commit to a fossil fuel phaseout at the most recent round of Cop climate talks in Brazil. But this initiative, co-hosted by the Colombian and Dutch governments and focused on the need for a roadmap away from fossil fuels, was well timed, given the disruption to energy supplies caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. While this new climate coalition cannot compel other governments to cooperate, its existence is an encouraging sign.

The growing danger from carbon emissions remains the strongest reason for a global shift to clean, sustainable energy. The Cop process’s greatest failure has been its inability to overcome resistance by petrostates and businesses to the phasedown of the coal, oil and gas industries. But if the energy price shocks of the past few years can jolt the status quo, and give politicians a short-term incentive to invest in wind and solar, then the consequences of the current crisis will not all have been negative.

Governments are the world’s most powerful actors and energy policy must never be reduced to consumer choice. But businesses and individuals also play a role in market societies, and recent rises in electric vehicle and solar panel sales in the UK and continental Europe offer proof that people will alter their behaviour in response to circumstances. Like the gathering in Colombia, this upturn in purchases is another reason to hope.

Once this week’s elections are over, the new administrations in Scotland, Wales and across England will all have vital parts to play. Although the biggest energy policy decisions are taken in Westminster, the green transition can only succeed with a broad spectrum of support. The shift to renewables is urgent and so is the need for the public to be on board.

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