One of the many problems with our politics now is that only the loudest or most discordant voices seem to get heard. And there’s certainly no shortage of people from rival Labour camps mouthing off about what happens next if Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield byelection today. An apparently well-placed source in his team says they are preparing to launch an “immediate leadership challenge” against Keir Starmer on Friday morning, while another briefs that Burnham will hold off – but only for 72 hours because they dare not risk losing momentum. At the very least, there will be a steady escalation of threats and ultimatums.

Meanwhile, the prime minister is said to be barricading himself into Downing Street, where he remains determined to contest a challenge and, according to some reports, will insist any member of the cabinet backing his rival must quit. For instance, some of his aides have been operating on the assumption that Ed Miliband, who has done little to conceal his desire for Starmer to go, will resign over the next week. Although this is vigorously denied by the energy secretary, along with claims that he is “ghosting” the prime minister’s calls, it has not stopped some hardline loyalists expressing unnecessary relish at the prospect of a more enforced cabinet departure for Miliband.

All this suggests that the high drama post-Makerfield that most of the media have predicted will be duly delivered. Yet there are also softer, and therefore less often quoted, voices who counsel caution to Starmer and Burnham.

Those helping Burnham prepare for government recognise that, having not been a minister for 16 years or an MP for nine, he could do with a longer run-up before leaping straight into Downing Street. Some have concerns about a policy programme that, vibes aside, seems remarkably similar to that being pursued by the current prime minister. They worry about polls showing the Greater Manchester mayor’s rating with voters has slipped into net negative figures since he made plain his desire to run the entire country. Others know he risks alienating a section of Labour MPs and members who are loyal to Starmer and believe the government is finally beginning to notch up some real achievements. Burnham’s supporters say lessons have to be learned from Wes Streeting’s frantic and ultimately unsuccessful efforts to trigger a leadership contest last month when, as one puts it, he “tried too hard to kick down the door”.

And, on the other side of Number 10’s door, there are signs that good sense can still prevail. Although any minister publicly demanding Starmer’s ousting could obviously not remain in his government, the prime minister realises he cannot present himself as a force for stability by unleashing chaos and sacking everyone who privately wants him out.

Amid all the overheated hyperbole on both sides, perhaps cooler heads can prevent the government sliding into a civil war. After all, neither side can really want a divisive leadership contest when Britain faces such huge challenges at home and abroad. And surely everyone would recognise that if Burnham is to take over as prime minister he needs to be prepared.

Starmer’s closest allies now acknowledge that questions about his continued leadership will have to be resolved at some point over the coming months, but not just yet. There is a surprising amount of enthusiasm for offering Burnham defence and intelligence briefings on privy council terms, or transition talks like those governments give opposition parties before a general election. Starmer said yesterday he wanted Burnham to play “a big role” in government. One proposal under discussion would even see him being invited to join the cabinet, possibly in a new post for constitutional renewal, although others say this would just be seen as a hostile act designed to put him on the back foot.

A temporary truce would allow Starmer to push through his defence investment plan – the kind of thorny issue Burnham definitely does not want to inherit – while potentially exposing the challenger to the kind of policy scrutiny he has not faced before. One of Burnham’s allies says it would work to his advantage by giving “Keir time and space to realise he doesn’t much like the new reality, where he will be constantly questioned by people asking if Andy agrees”.

The biggest stumbling block to negotiations, however, would be over when and how any ceasefire would end. Burnham’s team want him crowned leader by the time of the party conference, which begins on 27 September. They are anxious about what a long delay would mean for an autumn budget for which figures will soon need to be submitted in advance to spending watchdogs – when they are unlikely to want Rachel Reeves to remain in her post to deliver it. But Starmer is not ready to contemplate a leadership fight this autumn – probably not even this year – and nor will he concede that his premiership is over by giving Burnham a timetable for departure.

The prospect of resolving such differences is made more remote because relations between the two men have been in deep frost ever since the last Labour leadership election in 2020, when Starmer had hoped to count on the Manchester mayor’s support and was taken aback by his initial refusal.

Although much depends on what voters do in Makerfield, where a Labour byelection victory – decisive or otherwise – is by no means assured. Starmer says he will speak with Burnham over the next few days. It would help everyone if this dutiful prime minister can find a way to talk honestly, properly and in private to the man who wants to replace him.

Sure, those noisy voices may well prevail in the end. They usually do. But before the carnival of carnage begins – now more than ever – there is a still small voice of calm that needs to be heard.

• Tom Baldwin is a former adviser to Ed Miliband and the author of Keir Starmer: The Biography