Heathrow has warned that it faces an ‘uncertain outlook’, after a positive start to the year.

London’s largest airport has reported a 3.7% rise in passengers in the first quarter of this year, up to 18.9m.

It says:

Following airspace closures in the Middle East, there was an increase in transfer passengers across Heathrow’s network. While Heathrow has temporarily absorbed demand from elsewhere, passenger numbers for the rest of the year are likely to be impacted whilst there is significant uncertainty in the Middle East.

Heathrow adds that it has “seen some impact from recent Middle East disruption”, but has noet yet updated its outlook for 2026.

The number of UK businesses in “critical financial distress” has jumped by more than a third amid fresh pressure linked to the conflict in the Middle East, according to new research.

Hotels and leisure firms are in particular distress after facing higher labour costs and taxes over the past year, latest research from Begbies Traynor Group (BTG) has shown.

BTG’s latest quarterly red flag report indicated that more firms edged closer to collapse in the first quarter of 2026 – the number of companies considered in “critical financial distress” rose by 36.9% to 62,193 for the quarter, compared with the same period a year earlier.

The number of businesses in “significant” financial distress meanwhile rose by 9.6% year on year to 634,867.

Ric Traynor, executive chairman of BTG, said:

“The shockwaves from a war in the Middle East will be felt across every corner of the global economy for some time to come.

After initial signs that the UK’s GDP was improving at the very start of the year, it now feels like after taking a step forward, the UK has taken a few steps backwards following one of the most severe energy shocks in living memory.”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world econony.

UK trade to the Middle East has shrunk since the Iran war began eight weeks ago, new data shows.

The British Chambers of Commerce has reported that the number of certificates of origin issued by Chambers of Commerce for exports to the region fell by 20% year-on-year in March, down from 15,437 in March 2025 to 12,360 in March 2026

This decline indicates goods are either being delayed, rerouted or not shipped at all.

Companies classified as Arab League countries for certificates of origin include Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.

Steven Lynch, director of international trade at the British Chambers of Commerce, says UK firms are dealing with less reliable trade routes, rising costs and geopolitical risks, adding:

“Our documentation data shows a clear and immediate shock to UK trade flows linked directly to disruption across the Middle East. The fact that exports tied to Arab markets are falling far faster than elsewhere tells us this is a targeted, region‑specific impact, not a broad‑based downturn.

“Firms are reporting increased delays, rerouting via longer and more expensive pathways, enduring rising insurance premiums and facing stretched lead times. For SMEs in particular, this squeezes cashflow and confidence at a time when exporting is already challenging.

There’s no let-up in that challenge today, with the strait of Hormuz still badly disrupted and reports that the US is planning for a lengthy blockade of Iranian ports.

According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an ​extended blockade of Iran.

UK companies are already pessimistic about the economic outlook, and expect activity to fall in the next three months according to the CBI’s latest Growth Indicator.

It has found that business volumes in the services and manufacturing sector are anticipated to fall over the quarter,

Alpesh Paleja, CBI deputy chief economist, explains::

“Business’ expectations for activity have weakened further, as companies continue to grapple with uneven trading conditions, strong cost pressures and renewed uncertainty.

“These challenges have been exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East, which is increasingly hitting a broad swathe of UK businesses. Our surveys suggest that the additional pressure on costs and supply chains is feeding through to pricing intentions – but not nearly enough to offset the burden facing firms.

The agenda

• 10am BST: Eurozone economic sentiment data

• 2.45pm BST: Bank of Canada interest rate decision

• 7pm BST: US Federal Reserve intereat rate decisoin

• 7.30pm BST: Federal Reserve press conference