Standards body on track for 2028 specs drop. Telcos on track for 2028 existential crisis about 5G ROI
The first 6G deployments could arrive in 2029, with the US and South Korea likely leading early adoption, according to Juniper Research,
Juniper forecasts 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project) will publish the first 6G technical specifications by 2028, with global connections reaching 4.6 million at launch in 2029 and climbing to 2.9 billion by 2035.
The Far East and China are expected to account for nearly three-quarters of connections by 2030, followed by North America, with Western Europe a distant third.
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Don't hold your breath if you're in the UK, though, where the mobile networks are still struggling to deliver a satisfactory 5G service. Nations that led 5G rollouts will lead 6G too, we're told.
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6G technology is still in the global research and standardization phase, but experts we asked agreed it may be ready in a couple of years – though the markets for it may not.
"A good comparison point would be the uptake of 5G at the end of 2020," CCS Insight research analyst Joe Gardiner told The Register. "I believe the GSMA found there were 234 million connections globally at the end of 2020. Therefore, the forecast of 290 million connections globally by the end of 2030 seems reasonable, given population growth and growing digitalization, particularly in Asia."
There may be a slower rollout of 6G, he added. "Given the difficulty that some operators have found in monetizing 5G, they may not be interested in investing in 6G unless clear use cases are established. Use cases, therefore, may be focused more on enterprise or military applications initially; and there could be a slower rollout to consumer networks."
PP Foresight analyst and founder Paolo Pescatore agreed, telling us: "The telcos are not even thinking of 6G in their current roadmaps, as it is an unwanted distraction. Significantly, they are still looking to recoup on their existing investments in 4G and 5G. For now, they are firmly focused on proving the value of 5G-Advanced while preparing the foundations for 6G."
In selected markets, there will be opportunities to grab "bragging rights," he added, with scope for novel 6G services to be tested at major sporting events, including the 2028 Los Angeles Summer Olympics.
Juniper's report acknowledges significant hurdles remain, especially as 6G networks require governments and regulators to allocate new spectrum. Industry must also solve a number of technological challenges, including the issue of network interference arising from the use of high-frequency spectrum.
The GSMA had originally proposed a frequency range of 7-24 GHz, with a focus on the 7-15 GHz range, but walked back on that last year and now favors lower frequencies closer to those already in use.
As with 5G, the lower frequency bands allow a base station or cell tower to cover a wider area, and the higher frequency bands allow for greater data throughput at the expense of reduced range.
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The technologies expected to shape 6G range from the exotic to the pragmatic. The exotic includes Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces, which are materials with unique electromagnetic properties that Juniper says are required to mitigate the effects of signal interference at higher frequencies. Research into this has been ongoing for several years, as reported by The Register, as a way of enabling terahertz frequency bands in 6G deployments.
Satellite networks are also likely to have a big influence on 6G, particularly those enabling standard smartphones connectivity. Juniper expects 6G to bring about a convergence of terrestrial and satellite communications networks, building on the progress already made with 5G.
The end result is a space-air-ground integrated network (SAGIN), potentially eliminating connectivity dead spots, even in remote or mid-ocean areas, according to the IEEE.
Joint Communications and Sensing (JCAS) is another possibility, letting network infrastructure double as environmental sensors for enterprise use. ®