SpaceX’s stock rally has come to a halt for now. On Monday, the share fell 16.43 percent to around $154 — its lowest level since the first trading day. In after-hours trading, the stock recovered only about two percent.
For the earliest investors, that flips the picture: at $154, the share now trades below the roughly $160 reached on the first day of trading. Anyone who bought in at the debut is therefore currently sitting on losses.
Just how quickly sentiment has turned is clear from a look at the market capitalization. At its peak on 16 June, SpaceX was valued at around $2.7 trillion — when the stock hit an all-time high of $225.64. A week later, the valuation stands at just about $2.03 trillion. Within seven days, almost $700 billion in market value has evaporated.
In the ranking of the world’s most valuable companies, that means a step down: SpaceX falls back to seventh place, with corporations such as TSMC and Amazon once again valued considerably higher.
Despite the recent losses, however, the stock still trades clearly above the $135 issue price at which SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq in its record IPO on 12 June. The first trading days were marked by high volatility — typical of new issues with a low free float and strong retail-investor interest: only around four to five percent of the outstanding shares are freely tradable.
The immediate trigger is the announcement that SpaceX will issue investment-grade bonds for the first time. The plan is an offering of senior unsecured notes with a volume of at least $20 billion, arranged by a banking syndicate of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley.
The proceeds are intended primarily to refinance a bridge loan due in September 2027, which stems from the acquisition of Musk’s AI company xAI; the rest covers fees and general corporate purposes. Taken on its own, such a step is a routine optimization of the capital structure — short-term bank loans replaced by long-term, lower-interest bonds. Even so, the sensitive timing right after the IPO did not fail to make an impact on the markets.
What the market mainly read into the bond was a signal: SpaceX will increasingly finance its enormous capital needs for AI infrastructure and orbital data centers through debt. Analysts at Oppenheimer projected that net debt could swell from around $13 billion today to more than $400 billion by 2031, feeding concerns about the company’s future balance-sheet quality and cash-burn rate.
SpaceX does, by its own account, hold a substantial liquidity buffer of around $100.8 billion (as of 19 June), and the major rating agencies have assigned investment-grade marks (Moody’s Baa1, Fitch BBB+, S&P BBB). Yet the market initially repriced the financing implications — not the growth story.
Even after the pullback, SpaceX remains expensive by classic metrics: its price-to-sales ratio sits beyond 90 times — against around 3.7 for the S&P 500 — at a company that is growing but ultimately posting losses. Skeptics such as investor Michael Burry, who rose to prominence through the 2008 financial crisis, compare the current wave of large AI IPOs to the dot-com bubble. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens recently cut his fair-value estimate sharply — partly because of a roughly 3.4-percent dilution from the $60 billion all-stock acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor/Anysphere.
The low free float of just four to five percent works in both directions: it had fueled the explosive rise after the IPO — and now intensifies the slide. Because there is barely any liquidity to cushion moves, even moderate sell orders push the price by several percent. Added to that is the looming expiry of the lock-up periods from the end of 2026, which is likely to bring additional supply onto the market.
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