There are many who think Trump’s about face on Iran, virtually embracing the radical Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (now the IRGC is linked up to CENTCOM in Doha, Qatar) is a sellout of US and allied forces, not to mention the now-frequent denunciations of Benjamin Netanyahu by the president and by Vice President JD Vance who also is the sponsor of the IRGC-CENTCOM hookup.

Embracing dictators and spurning those who are fighting for democracy is bad policy and is destabilizing in the long term.

Many pundits, including some genuine regional experts, have been trying to figure out why Trump abandoned the effort in Iran, embraced the most hated regime in the region and beyond, and is offering billions of dollars as compensation to Iran allegedly in exchange for access to Iran’s enriched uranium (something Iran keeps telling him will never happen). Some think that reports apparently from the CIA and DIA told Trump that America’s great bombing campaign did not really liquidate Iran’s missiles and drones, and that further bombing would not change the situation appreciably. So even though Trump in public said we had crushed the Iranians, his intelligence agencies told him the contrary.

Is this what pushed Trump to change course?

Trump shifted from a bombing campaign to a blockade to facilitate negotiations. That was on and off again for a while until Trump gave in to every Iranian demand. Supposedly that was going to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and get the oil flowing from the region. So far, despite Trump’s having signed a strongly pro-Iran agreement, it has not happened.

Trump blundered badly when he let the Iranians also tie any deal to getting Israel to pull out of Lebanon, a conflict started under orders from Tehran that has caused substantial harm in northern Israel. Trump blamed it all on “Bibi” Netanyahu.

Some think that the blockade was causing huge economic harm, especially in Europe (and the Europeans have mainly refused to back the US and Israel in the Iran conflict). These are the same Europeans who expect that the US will defend them in case of conflict with Russia, but who spend a pittance on defense themselves.

Europe has a combined GDP of nearly $28 trillion, compared with US GDP $31.9 trillion, so the Europeans have plenty of money (but absurdly small armies). Consider that the US can deploy 200,000 troops simultaneously while Europe probably can deploy 50,000, maybe fewer (since they have got to get them where they are going and Europe has limited lift capacity). By way of contrast, Russia has deployed around 750,000 in Ukraine.

Europe has voluntarily shut down Russian gas and oil. The Germans also scrapped their nuclear power plants. And someone blew up three quarters of the Nordstream pipeline. There would be no crisis on energy had they not done all this.

The pattern of Trump’s behavior in regard to Iran is no different than what he has done in Venezuela, would like to do in Cuba, tried to do in Gaza and is trying to do in Ukraine.

In Gaza Hamas is still in control and is not disarmed. The entire deal is mostly a fake, and the Gaza problem is not solved so long as Hamas is in control.

In Venezuela there was a real opposition capable of bringing the country back to democracy and purging Venezuela of the corrupt thugs running the place. The thugs are still in power and there are still political prisoners jailed in that country. Venezuela is not free, it is just selling its oil with the assistance of US oil companies. The Maduro group is still running the place (and even paying Maduro’s legal bills in New York). They win. Freedom and democracy takes it on the chin. The opposition has been put back in its hole.

What about Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Crown Prince of Iran? Trump did not support him, never gave him a chance. What about the 40,000 killed by the regime because they wanted to get rid of the Mullahs and the IRGC? Too bad. While the US said it was coming to their aid, it never happened.

The handwriting was on the wall with Venezuela, so there is no surprise here.

The US spent a lot of effort, along with key allies, especially the British, to get rid of Putin and break up Russia, opening it up to divide-and-rule and to capital investment. Didn’t work, at least not yet. So now we and our European allies are arranging the bombing of Russia, perhaps to force the Russians into a deal. Meanwhile we have side talks with Russia on economic incentives.

Trump’s deal with Iran, as absurd as it is, is popular among voters and Trump’s presidential stock has gone up in public opinion. His deal with Venezuela is not seen as negative. The Gaza deal is a bust. The Ukraine war continues. Americans care about gasoline prices and the cost of food, not about other countries.

In the long term President Trump has reinforced geopolitical instability and taught a harsh lesson to those who believed he was a modern-day savior and warrior against totalitarianism. The US image is deeply harmed, maybe irrevocably.

Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy under secretary of defense. This article, first published on his newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.