Three years ago, the price of a single XRP (XRP2.32%) token was approximately $0.50. Today, it's nearly $1.50. So, if history is any guide, XRP is theoretically capable of tripling in value every three years.

That means XRP could be a $4 crypto -- or perhaps even a $5 crypto -- by 2030. But just how likely is that? Let's take a closer look, News.Az reports, citing CNBC.

The bull case scenario for XRP

The classic bull case scenario for XRP is built on the technological promise of blockchain-based payments. After all, the XRP blockchain ledger is the cornerstone of a global blockchain-based payment system from fintech company Ripple. This payment system is typically cheaper and faster than legacy payment systems, making it attractive for cross-border payments.

That creates a huge market opportunity. According to Ripple executives, XRP might account for 14% or more of global transaction volume currently flowing through the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) payment network by the year 2030. That works out to about $21 trillion in transaction volume flowing through Ripple's blockchain payment network every year.

So you can understand why the 2030 price targets for XRP are so bullish. For example, crypto investment firm Bitwise expects XRP to reach $29.32 by 2030. That's a nearly 20 times return on investment, given today's prices.

The bear case scenario for XRP

However, keep in mind that many of XRP's core use cases are now being fulfilled by dollar-backed stablecoins. Arguably, stablecoins -- and not risky altcoins like XRP -- are the future of global payments. Most likely, stablecoins will continue to erode XRP's value proposition over time.

And indeed, if you check out what prediction markets have to say about XRP, the data is a bit sobering. On Polymarket, there's currently a 47% chance that XRP could fall to $1 this year, a 42% chance it could fall to $0.80, and a 32% chance it could fall to $0.60. By way of comparison, XRP has only a 23% chance of doubling in value this year.

Keep your eye on the big picture

If you're considering investing in XRP, it's important to keep an eye on developments in the world of blockchain-based payments. For example, at the end of 2025, the SWIFT payment network embarked on a major blockchain-powered upgrade, as part of a new regulatory directive.

If SWIFT fully embraces blockchain-based payments, that will obviously erode some of Ripple's appeal to large financial institutions. If that's the case, it might be time to lower some of XRP's long-range price targets.

That's why I don't think XRP is going to skyrocket to $10, $20, or $30 any time soon. But XRP may still be capable of tripling in value to a modest $5, provided blockchain-based payments take off as expected.

News.Az 

By Faig Mahmudov