The outbreak of war in Iran is triggering massive ripples across global energy markets—and the Kremlin is reaping the rewards. Driven by a dramatic surge in global oil prices, Russia’s state oil and gas revenues are projected to skyrocket by 39% year-on-year this May, reaching an estimated 700 billion roubles ($9.8 billion).

As the world's third-largest oil producer and exporter, trailing only the United States and Saudi Arabia, Russia has emerged as one of the primary economic beneficiaries of the conflict in the Middle East. The influx of energy cash provides a vital lifeline for Moscow, helping to offset the heavy security and defense spending that has continuously strained national finances over the last few years, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.

However, the revenue jump doesn't mean smooth sailing for the Kremlin's budget. Despite the massive year-on-year increase, May's energy income is actually expected to drop about 17% compared to April.

Economists point to two major factors dragging down the monthly numbers. First, Russia is hitting a predictable lull in cyclical, profit-based tax payments. Second, the government is facing internal financial strain from rising domestic refinery subsidies—payouts that cut directly into federal budget margins.

Furthermore, the high prices of late spring haven't entirely erased a rocky start to the year. According to market calculations, Russia's total oil and gas revenue for the first five months of the year is still down roughly one-third compared to the same period last year, sitting at 3 trillion roubles.

With Moscow forecasting a total oil and gas revenue target of 8.92 trillion roubles for the entire year, the war-driven oil rally could decide whether Russia meets its massive 40.283 trillion rouble total budget goal.

News.Az 

By Aysel Mammadzada