In a sign of the mounting effects of Ukrainian drone strikes on the Russian energy economy, Russia's oil producers appear to have cut back output this month by as much as 400,000 barrels per day.
The downshift signals success for Ukraine, as the Russian military budget depends in no small part on oil revenue, and soaring crude prices have provided Moscow with a much-needed economic windfall, News.Az reports, citing Mari Time-Executive.
Compared to last year, Russia has fewer reliably safe ways to send its oil to foreign buyers. Export volume at its Baltic ports fell by half at the end of March due to Ukrainian strikes on Ust-Luga and Primorsk, according to Finnish think tank CREA. In the Black Sea, repeated strikes on the Novorossiysk inner harbor terminal and the refinery complex at Tuapse have reduced loading volumes.
Russia no longer releases official statistics on its oil production, given the ongoing war with Ukraine, the decline is significant and likely to last for at least some months. "Against the backdrop of ongoing attacks on Russia's ports and refineries, it will be difficult to place oil without cutting output, especially with upcoming spring maintenance shutdowns."
If the trend continues and is further amplified by ongoing Ukrainian attacks, well shut-ins would be required on a growing scale. A shut-in can cause significant degradation of a well's productive capacity, with long-term implications for Russian energy production even if conditions ease.
A 400,000 bpd drop in production would not be enough in itself to offsedt the recent surge in Russian energy revenue. Russia's Urals benchmark trades at a discount to Brent, but with the index soaring north of $100 per barrel last month, Russian Urals crude prices averaged about $77 for March. enough to drive up fossil fuel export revenues by 50 percent month-on-month, according to CREA. Seaborne crude export earnings were up by 115 percent month on month - more than double previous levels.
Russia needs the funds: in addition to the staggering sums required weekly to fund the war in Ukraine, it is grappling with a slow-rolling banking crisis caused by a pileup of unpaid business debts and rising corporate taxes, according to Moscow Times.
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